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Four possible reasons for being unemployed

Leaving or losing a job and entering or reentering the labor force

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the monthly number of people unemployed and their status at the time they become unemployed. There are four categories, each represented by a colored area in the FRED graph above:

  • workers who voluntarily left their jobs (the blue area)
  • workers who involuntarily lost their jobs (the red area)
  • former workers who, after a period of time, decided to re-enter the labor force and look for work (the green area)
  • new members of the labor force who are actively looking for work (the purple area)

The FRED graph shows that, between January 1967 and September 2023, job losers made up the largest proportion of the unemployed. That proportion is heavily influenced by business cycles, and it spiked to almost 90% during the onset of the COVID-19-induced recession. The proportion of job leavers is small, and it also changes with the phases of the business cycle. The proportion of new labor market entrants is roughly similar to that of job leavers, although generally much more stable. Lastly, re-entrants to the labor force who are unemployed are more numerous than new entrants, albeit a more-accurate comparison between those two groups should take into consideration the 1994 redesign of the current population survey.

How the graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Job Leavers as a Percent of Total Unemployed.” Next, click on the “Edit Graph” button and use the “Add Line” tab to search for and add “Job Losers as a Percent of Total Unemployed.” Repeat the previous step to add “Reentrants to Labor Force as a Percent of Total Unemployed” and “New Entrants as a Percent of Total Unemployed.” Next, click on the “Format” tab, change the graph type to “Area,” and the stacking to “Normal.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

Credit card holders and their credit scores

New insights from the Research Division of the St. Louis Fed

Your credit report is a record of your credit history that includes information about your identity, outstanding balances and history of making payments, publicly available information, and inquiries made by organizations or individuals about your credit history. Your credit score is a number that reflects the information in your credit report. See this Consumer’s Guide from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve to learn more about it.

Credit scores are used by lenders when deciding whether to grant you credit, what terms you are offered, or the rate you will pay on a loan.

The FRED graph above shows data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia about the change in credit scores by three groups of credit card holders: those with the lowest 10% of credit scores (the blue line); those with the lowest 25% of credit scores (the red line); and those with median, or middle-of-range, credit scores (the green line). Personal credit scores may change from quarter to quarter, so individual credit card holders could potentially move between groupings. The data were transformed into a custom index with a value of 100 in the third quarter of 2012, the first available observation, to highlight a striking feature of their recent changes.

During the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the credit scores of many credit card holders increased noticeably. This jump in scores was pretty much irrespective of how high or low those scores were to begin with. More flexible repayment terms on existing debts, reduced spending during the periods of lockdown and social distancing, and substantial income subsidies provided by the government improved the credit scores of many people. However, all those factors boosting personal finances were temporary.

Recent research from Juan M. Sánchez and Masataka Mori at the St Louis Fed finds some evidence that many individuals who experienced a fast improvement in credit scores during the COVID-19 pandemic are not as financially stable as those who improved their credit scores after the 2007-2009 recession, also known as the Great Recession. As a consequence, people who were likely to be financially distressed prior to 2020 and saw their credit scores improve during the pandemic also make up a significant proportion of credit card holders recently missing multiple payments on their existing credit card balances. In short: Their credit scores may have improved, but their long-term underlying ability to repay a loan in time did not.

For more about this and other research, visit the website of the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, which offers an array of economic analysis and expertise provided by our staff.

How this graph was created: In FRED, search for “Large Bank Consumer Credit Card Balances: Current Credit Score: 10th Percentile.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “Large Bank Consumer Credit Card Balances: Current Credit Score: 25th Percentile.” Repeat the last step to add the third series, “Large Bank Consumer Credit Card Balances: Current Credit Score: 50th Percentile.” Next, select the “Edit Line 1” tab to customize the units by selecting “Index (Scale value to 100 for chosen date)” and enter “2012-07-01” in the date box. Click on “Copy to all” to apply the unit transformation to all the series.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

Federal Reserve System employment since 1915

New insights from the Research Division of the St. Louis Fed

The FRED Blog has used data from many different sources to discuss the work conducted by the Federal Reserve System to promote the health of the US economy and the stability of the US financial system. Today, we highlight the workforce employed all across the Federal Reserve System that perform the day-to-day operations supporting the Fed’s key functions.

The FRED graph above shows data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics about the number of persons employed by the monetary authority, the central bank, of the United States. The data span January 1, 1990, through August 1, 2023—the latest available observation at the time of this writing. The number of people employed by the Federal Reserve system peaked slightly above 24,000 in early 1991, bottoming out at roughly 17,000 persons 11 years later.

Recent research from Genevieve Podleski, Jonathan Rose, and Jona Whipple at the St Louis Fed stretches back those employment data to 1915, the year after the Federal Reserve System was founded and records are available. Their work shows that the all-time peak of Fed employment was recorded in the early 1970s. The size of the work force has increased and decreased over the years, as the nature and scope of the day-to-day operations of the Federal Reserve System has evolved over time.

For more about this and other research, visit the website of the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, which offers an array of economic analysis and expertise provided by our staff.

How this graph wase created: Search FRED for and select “All Employees, Monetary Authorities-Central Bank.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.



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