The FRED® Blog

Real GDP growth by state: Second quarter 2026

On September 30, 2026, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released real GDP data for all US states for the second quarter of 2026. The FRED map above shows the annualized growth rates from the previous quarter: Red denotes contraction (0% or less growth), light green denotes slow growth (>0% to 2%), and dark green denotes stronger growth (>2% to 5%).

Highlights

  • 44 of 50 state economies plus Washington, DC, grew in the second quarter. The national average was at 2.2% annualized growth.
  • The median state, Iowa, grew at 1.7%, which is below the national average. 32 states had slower growth than the national average.
  • New York had the fastest annualized growth, at 4%. South Carolina and Delaware were next, at 3.5% growth.
  • Alaska, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming all experienced a contraction. West Virginia had the steepest contraction, at -2.3%, followed by Wyoming, at -1.6%.

According to the BEA press release, finance and insurance sectors were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP in New York and Delaware. Mining was the leading contributor to the decline in West Virginia and Wyoming. More information on each state’s breakdown of their overall composition of real GDP can be found here.

The St. Louis Fed’s Eighth District states grew in the second quarter, with all eight growing slower than the national average. Mississippi and Illinois grew the fastest, at 2.1%.

Note: These data are subject to future revision by the source, with an annual revision the following March. Our ALFRED database records vintages of the data, so users can view the data as they appeared at various points in history. The link takes you to real GDP for Missouri, as of September 30, 2026.

Highlights for Q1 growth revisions are as follows:

  • Q1 revisions averaged  +/- 2% across all states and Washington, DC.
  • The largest downward revision was for Alaska: from 2.8% to -3.8%.
  • The largest upward revision was for Washington, DC: from 2.2% to 7.3%.

How this map was created: Search FRED for “Real Total Gross Domestic Product for Missouri” and click the first available series. Click the “View Map” button and then the blue “Edit Map” button. Modify the units to “Compounded Annual Rate of Change.” Use “Format” to switch the number of color groups to 3, with the data grouped by “User Defined Method”; then define the scales to be 2 and 10. For values 0 or less, choose red for contraction; for values 2 or less, choose light green to show slight growth; for values 5 or less, choose dark green to show moderate growth.

Suggested by John Fuller and Charles Gascon.

What is the Treasury general account?

The takeaway

When you hear commentary on the federal government’s financial situation, the information is often based on the money flowing into and out of the Treasury general account.

The US government’s checking account

As with any household or business, even the federal government needs an account to handle its bills and receive income from various sources. This account, provided by the Federal Reserve in its role as fiscal agent of the federal government, is called the Treasury general account. Our FRED graph above is updated with the account’s balance every Wednesday.

Reserves held at the Fed

The holdings of the Treasury general account are considered to be reserves at the Fed, equivalent to the reserves that banks hold there. The level of these balances in the general account was initially kept to a minimum to avoid interfering with Fed policy and the handling of reserve requirements. That changed in 2008 with the financial crisis, when it became routine for banks to hold excess reserves at the Fed and earn interest on them.

Since then, the Treasury general account has been holding considerable balances, at times over a trillion dollars.

There are also notable drawdowns on the balance. When new Treasury bonds are issued through the Fed at an auction, the proceeds land in the account. The balance gets reduced when Treasury bonds are bought back on the market, when the government issues stimulus checks, and when tax rebates turn out to be high.

When the balance gets close to zero, it’s often because a debt ceiling is approaching. At times like these, you often hear someone commenting that the federal government will run out of cash at some date. Such forecasts are made by looking at this account, its inflows, and its outflows.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Treasury general account.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

Estimating the risk of recession in the US

The takeaway

A new dataset in FRED provides the monthly probability the US economy is in recession. The latest data, for August 2026, show that probability was 0.08%.

The data

FRED has added probability estimates of the US economy being in recession. The dataset comes from RecessionRisk.com and was developed by economists Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone. Our FRED graph above shows these monthly median probabilities since January 1980. Probability values range from 0% to 100%, where values closer to 100 indicate higher probability of recession.

Because the calculations incorporate timely indicators, these estimates are available on the first business day after the reference month closes. For example, the recession risk value for August 2026 (0.08%) became available on the first business day of September 2026.

The shaded areas in the graph represent the start and end dates of recessions reported by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee. This data visualization feature can be turned on and off in every FRED graph by following the steps described here.

The interpretation

The overlap between the RecessionRisk.com data and the NBER data is generally close. The timing of spikes in the estimated probability of recession broadly coincide with the dates announced by the NBER for turning points in the US business cycle from expansion to contraction. (That is, the occurrence of recessions.) However, several probability spikes, such as the ones around October 1998 and March 2023, did not develop into actual recessions.

The methodology

The probability estimates are calculated using a statistical model that combines two indicators. The first measures broad economic conditions, and the second measures financial market stress:

  • Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which is a survey of business conditions
  • The Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) reported by the European Central Bank, which tracks stress across bond, equity, money, foreign exchange, and financial intermediary markets

Details about the methodologies are available here.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Recession Probability for the United States, Median Estimate.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.



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