Federal Reserve Economic Data

In early April 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the annual benchmark revision to state employment data for 2025. Before this benchmark revision, the data showed positive job growth in 2025 in just over two-thirds of US states: 34 of 50. The median job growth rate was 0.45%. After this revision, the data show job growth was positive in fewer than half the states: 22 of 50. And the median job growth rate was -0.09%, a slight job loss. This FRED blog post explains why these data revisions occur and provides examples of how ALFRED can be used to examine these data revisions over time.

Why do data revisions occur?

Data revisions occur because counting new jobs is a difficult process that relies on samples and advanced statistical techniques. As more information becomes available, data are revised. The BLS uses the monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey to estimate local employment for nonagricultural industries. But the best source of local employment statistics comes from their Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). The QCEW includes data derived from establishments’ reports to the various unemployment insurance programs that are released with about a 6-month lag. Every spring, the BLS reconciles the CES estimates with the data from the QCEW, which can result in significant revisions.

What do the data show us?

The BLS often revises employment data significantly, and 2025 was no exception.

• The average absolute revision to 2025 state employment growth was 0.70%.
• Job growth was revised lower in 40 states and higher in 10 states.
• Nevada (+2.33%) and Alaska (+0.47%) had the largest positive revisions to job growth, while Maryland (-1.82%) and Missouri (-1.99%) had the largest negative revisions.

Our two FRED graphs above show the 12-month change in nonfarm payrolls for Missouri and Nevada, the two states with the largest revisions. The dashed blue line in each graph is the most recent vintage of data in ALFRED (April 13, 2026), and the solid line green lines is the the vintage of data prior to this benchmark revision (January 27, 2026).

Although it can be tempting to take unrevised data at face value, this year’s revisions underscore the importance of always taking a cautious approach.

How these graphs were created: Search ALFRED for and select the “Missouri nonfarm employment” series. Adjust the date range to “2021-01-01” to “2025-12-01.” Click “Edit Graph” and change the “Units” to “Change from Year Ago, Thousands of Persons” and click “Copy to all.” Open the “Format” tab to change the “Graph type” to “Line” and click “Customize” on “Line 1” to change the “Line Style” to “Dash.” For the second graph, repeat for Nevada.

Suggested by Charles Gascon.

More data from the Chicago Fed’s Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS) release are now in FRED. These estimates of retail and food service sales (excluding some motor vehicles and parts) track the U.S. Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) on a weekly basis, providing an early snapshot of national retail spending.

Our ALFRED^* graph above plots CARTS and MRTS data side by side between April 2025 and March 2026.

1. The two lines in the graph look like a single line, which indicates the monthly averages of benchmarked weekly estimates from the Chicago Fed are identical to the figures reported by the Census.
2. The graph also shows the CARTS data projection beyond the latest MRTS data. These estimates allow economic researchers and policymakers to make early assessments of trends in consumer purchases using higher-frequency data.

CARTS data in FRED go back to January 2018 and also include series about inflation-adjusted estimated retail sales figures, a price index of retail sales, and projections for both.

^*Happy Birthday, ALFRED! For 20 years, ArchivaL FRED has taken people back in time to see the data that were available on specific dates. Learn more about how it can help you understand economic history.

How this graph was created: Search ALFRED for and select “Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services, Excluding Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers.” Click on the “Edit Graph” button and select the “Add Line” tab to search for “Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary: Retail and Food Services Sales Excluding Autos.” Don’t forget to click on “Add data series.” Select the “Edit Lines” tab to change Line 2’s data frequency to “Monthly.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

On April 9, 2026, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released real GDP data for all US states for the fourth quarter and annualized for 2025. The FRED map above shows the annualized year-over-year growth rates: Light green denotes slow growth (0% to 2%), and dark green denotes moderate growth (above 2%).

Highlights

• All 50 state economies grew in 2025. The mean was at 1.8% annualized growth.
• The median state, New Jersey, grew at 1.8%, slightly above the mean. A total of 26 states had faster growth than the mean.
• South Carolina had the fastest annualized growth, at a 3.1% change from a year ago.
• North Dakota had the slowest annualized growth, at a 0.3% percent change from a year ago.

The St. Louis Fed’s Eighth District states all grew last year. Three had faster growth than the national average: Arkansas, Indiana, and Tennessee. And four had slower growth: Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Missouri. Indiana had the fastest growth, at 2.5%, while Kentucky was the slowest, at 1%.

NOTE: These data are subject to future revision by the source. Our ALFRED database records vintages of the data, so users can view the data as they appeared at various points in history. The link takes you to real GDP for Missouri, as of April 9, 2026.

How this map was created: Search FRED for “Real Total Gross Domestic Product for Missouri” and click the first available series. Click the “View Map” button and then the blue “Edit Map” button. Modify the frequency to “Annual” and units to “Percent Change from Year Ago.” Use “Format” to switch the number of color groups to 2, with the data grouped by “User Defined Method”; then define the scales to be 2 and 5. For values less than 2, choose light green to show slight growth; for values less than 5, choose dark green to show moderate growth.

Suggested by Violeta Gutowski and John Fuller.