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Are public jobs more stable?

A look at layoff data

Legend has it that government jobs are more stable than private sector jobs. One way to investigate this is to use data on layoffs. The graph shows the layoff rate (as a proportion of current employees) for the economy as a whole (in blue), for the private sector (in red), and for all levels of government (in green). Indeed, the public layoff rate is significantly lower. Also, it was barely affected during the previous recession, while there was a strong spike in layoffs for private business. Note, though, that there was an uptick in government job layoffs right at the end of the recession: This reflects mainly non-federal entities who felt budget pressure to reduce their workforces. But what happened in June/July 2010? Is this evidence of a major wave of government layoffs? Actually, this spike is related to the census: All federal/public employment data series have these blips every ten years when the substantial workforce necessary to conduct the decennial census departs from federal payrolls.

How this graph was created: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover release has a lot of relevant data, in particular in the form of release tables. Navigate it, check the series you want, then click on “Add to Graph.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: JTS1000LDR, JTS9000LDR, JTSLDR

How is your state doing?

Mapping state GDP growth

While national GDP growth stays within a rather narrow band, the same cannot be said of GDP growth at the state level. The map above shows great diversity across states in 2016, from –6.5% in North Dakota to +3.7% in Washington. The regional differences stem from the fact that many states are poorly diversified when taken individually, and these differences wash out when you aggregate up to the national level. Note also that state-level fortunes can change rapidly. The map below shows growth rates for 2015, when Texas had the highest growth rate; it was among the lowest in 2016, though. North Dakota was the lowest this year, but that was after a stunning +7.3% rate of growth in 2014. Follow the link below the graph and you can also check how the situation changes from year to year across the United States.

How these maps were created: The original post referenced interactive maps from our now discontinued GeoFRED site. The revised post provides replacement maps from FRED’s new mapping tool. To create FRED maps, go to the data series page in question and look for the green “VIEW MAP” button at the top right of the graph. See this post for instructions to edit a FRED map. Only series with a green map button can be mapped.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

The cost of overseas flights

National income and product accounts track airfares

As the summer travel season approaches, it’s time to consider options for vacations. If your plans involve traveling abroad, you’re likely watching how airfares are evolving. Overseas flights are considered exports and thus are tracked in the national income and product accounts (NIPA). Anything in NIPA usually has a price index attached, and the graph above shows that price index for three popular destinations. It should surprise no one that the prices seem quite volatile and that summer prices are higher—except, to our surprise, flights to Latin America: Flights there don’t exhibit seasonal patterns. We also note that, while there seems to have been a secular increase until 2012, prices have been trending down since. Also, there are important long-run differences between markets, with flights to Asia appearing to be under more price pressure than flights elsewhere. However, this graph won’t help you time your ticket purchases for this summer.

How this graph was created: Search for “air passenger fares,” check the series you want, click on “Add to Graph,” and limit the sample period to avoid the gap in the first years.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: IH1421, IH1422, IH1424


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