Federal Reserve Economic Data

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National income’s connection to life expectancy

Tracking countries with high, middle, and low income

There is a strong positive correlation between life expectancy and national income: That is, higher (lower) life expectancy for a country’s population is associated with higher (lower) GDP for that country. The FRED graph above provides the supporting evidence.

The red, green, and purple lines plot life expectancy at birth for high-, middle-, and low-income countries, respectively, since 1960. We can see the relationship between life expectancy and national income through (1) the comparison of income groups at any point in time and (2) the time trend of each individual income group.

In any given year, life expectancy is always highest for high-income countries and lowest for low-income countries. Over time, the group average for life expectancy increases for all three income levels and their national incomes also rise.

This graph also shows that the life expectancy gap between high- and low-income countries narrows over time:

  • In 1960, the average life expectancy for high-income countries was 68.5 years, while the average for low-income countries was 39.3 years, a gap of 29.2 years.
  • In 2018, this gap shrank to 16.9 years, with an average life expectancy of 80.7 for high-income countries and 63.8 for low-income countries.

This global increase of life expectancy over the past 60 years, especially for low-income countries, has been a significant achievement in human history. However, there’s a bit of country-specific variation, even within the high-income group. The U.S. is good example.

The blue line shows life expectancy for the U.S., which is always included in the high-income group over the sample period. U.S. life expectancy was slightly higher than that of high-income countries overall in the 1960s, was about even with them in the 1970s and 80s, and started to lag behind in the 1990s and even declined in recent years. The 2018 data show that life expectancy in the U.S. is 2 years lower than the average for all high-income countries. In short, U.S. life expectancy has increased, though its rate of increase for the past half century is lower than life expectancy for other high-income countries.

How this graph was created: Search for and select one of the “life expectancy and income” series for income groups (high, middle, low), then use the “Edit Graph” panel’s “Add Line” feature to search for the rest, plus the life expectancy total for the U.S.

Suggested by YiLi Chien.

View on FRED, series used in this post: SPDYNLE00INHIC, SPDYNLE00INLIC, SPDYNLE00INMIC, SPDYNLE00INUSA

Frequency analysis of the word “pandemic”: The talk of the global village

FRED has more than 765,000 time series of data from 96 sources—some old, some new. One of the newest is a frequency analysis of the word “pandemic” from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) country reports. Economists Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, and Davide Furceri built the index number by counting the number of words related to pandemic episodes appearing in each country’s report, dividing that figure by the total number of words in the report and multiplying that ratio by 100,000.

These two GeoFRED maps show the index number for each country report during the fourth quarter of 2019 (above) and the first quarter of 2020 (below). Mentions of pandemics (disease outbreaks affecting many people at once) were identified only in certain countries in late 2019. Today, those mentions have spread worldwide.

How these maps were created: The original post referenced interactive maps from our now discontinued GeoFRED site. The revised post provides replacement maps from FRED’s new mapping tool. To create FRED maps, go to the data series page in question and look for the green “VIEW MAP” button at the top right of the graph. See this post for instructions to edit a FRED map. Only series with a green map button can be mapped.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo and Maria Arias.

The decline of U.S. pharmaceutical production

Likely sources and possible solutions for domestic drug shortages

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a shortage in the supply of prescription drugs and their main active ingredients. These shortages pose a challenge for countries such as the United States, which depend heavily on imports of these types of products.

The FRED graph above shows monthly, seasonally adjusted data for the industrial production of pharmaceutical products and medicines in the United States from January 1972 to April 2020. Since the peak in December 2006, U.S. production has consistently declined—by about 35%.

What’s behind this decline? According to data from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, most of the manufacturing of active ingredients for medicines that are sold in the United States are located in other countries, mainly in China and India because of their lower costs of production and in Ireland because of tax incentives. So, imports of these types of products have been increasing in the United States, causing a substantial decline in their domestic production.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed this U.S. dependence on imports of drugs and their active ingredients. The pandemic is global, so supply chain disruptions and other complications can have negative consequences for any country that’s heavily dependent on these products. One option to mitigate the shortages in the short run could be to scale-up domestic manufacturing of active pharmaceutical ingredients; in the medium run, international agreements could be created with the main foreign suppliers of these products.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “pharmaceuticals” and select the series “Industrial Production: Nondurable Goods: Pharmaceutical and medicine (IPG3254S).”

Suggested by Ana Maria Santacreu.

View on FRED, series used in this post: IPG3254S


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