Federal Reserve Economic Data

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Central banking since 1701

Three centuries of Bank of England asset data

The British have a history of recording excellent historical data, and we’ve already written a few related posts. Today we look at central bank assets for the Bank of England, founded in 1694. The graph above shows the assets as a share of GDP since 1701, which is a remarkable timeline, especially because it requires estimates of GDP from before the American Revolutionary War not to mention the Battle of Culloden!

This FRED graph shows us that assets in the 18th century reached a fifth of GDP before slowly receding. There were run-ups during the turmoil of the Great Depression, World War II, and the Great Recession and its financial crisis. For comparison, we added the (much shorter) corresponding series for the United States in red. It’s pretty amazing how well they match up.

How this graph was created” Search for “Bank of England assets,” select the appropriate series, and click “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, open the “Add line” tab, and search for “federal reserve assets.” Once you have the series, change its frequency to quarterly, add a series looking for “nominal GDP,” and apply formula a/b/10. (We multiply by 100 to get percent but divide by 1000 to have the same units for a and b: thus, /10.)

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: BOEBSTAUKA, GDP, WALCL

CO2 in the air: How does it get there?

CO2 emissions by fuel type and sector

In a previous post, we looked at carbon emissions by fuel type broken down by different economic sectors. Today, we slice the data another way: We look at each economic sector and break down their emissions by fuel type. The first graph shows that the big emitters are transportation, electric power generation, and industry. Overall emissions have tended to decline, mostly thanks to a decline from power generation.

The next graph shows the commercial sector. Overall, it emits relatively little CO2 and all fuel types seem to be on the decline. The recent surge in gasoline is most likely due to a reclassification of some sub-sectors into the commercial sector.

The next graph, which shows emissions from the industrial sector, isn’t very enlightening, as the largest fuel type is “Other.” But all fuel types are emitting less, except for distillate fuels such as diesel.

Electric power generation is traditionally the largest emitter, so it’s particularly relevant to consider its fuel composition. A clear majority of its emissions come from coal, but this is now on a steady decline. Natural gas has increased, but overall emissions from this sector have been decreasing.

Our last two graphs consider the transportation and residential sectors: Clearly, the transportation sector is very heavily into petroleum, with a slight upward trend in its emissions. The residential sector is heavily into natural gas, plus a bit of petroleum, with a slight downward trend.

How these graphs were created: For the first, search for “carbon dioxide emissions all fuels,” use the side bar to restrict results to “nation,” select the series shown here, and click “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Format” tab to select graph type “Area” and stacking “Normal.” The five other graphs are built similarly by searching for “carbon dioxide emissions” and the respective sector, including only series where the units are million metric tons. Note: The “Format” tab also allows you to choose colors for the series, which is useful for making the colors for the fuels consistent across graphs.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: EMISSCO2TOTVCCTOUSA, EMISSCO2TOTVECCOA, EMISSCO2TOTVECNGA, EMISSCO2TOTVECPEA, EMISSCO2TOTVECTOUSA, EMISSCO2TOTVICTOUSA, EMISSCO2TOTVRCCOA, EMISSCO2TOTVRCNGA, EMISSCO2TOTVRCPEA, EMISSCO2TOTVRCTOUSA, EMISSCO2TOTVTCCOA, EMISSCO2TOTVTCNGA, EMISSCO2TOTVTCPEA, EMISSCO2TOTVTCTOUSA, EMISSCO2VCLCCBA, EMISSCO2VCLICBA, EMISSCO2VDFCCBA, EMISSCO2VDFICBA, EMISSCO2VKSCCBA, EMISSCO2VLUICBA, EMISSCO2VMGCCBA, EMISSCO2VMGICBA, EMISSCO2VRFCCBA, EMISSCO2VRFICBA

Have you heard the news? News can affect markets

The effects of economic news on expectations of future financial performance

FRED’s all about data, which economists often use to conduct or test their research. So let’s look at some of that research…

In a recent St. Louis Fed working paper, economists Maximiliano Dvorkin, Juan M. Sanchez, Horacio Sapriza, and Emircan Yurdagul study how the arrival of news affects emerging markets. They use a logic from a 2006 paper by Beaudry and Portier to identify news events—aka “shocks.” The idea is to compare a financial index that captures the expected future performance of the economy with a measure of current performance. They identify “good news” when the expected performance variable improves without any proportional improvement in the current performance variable. On the flip side, they identify “bad news” when the expected performance variable declines without any proportional decline in the current performance variable.

Because their research focuses on emerging markets, they use the JPMorgan Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI) spread, which captures the risk of sovereign default, as their measure of future performance. They show a connection between the arrival of bad news and an increase in the EMBI spread that can’t be accounted for by current data. They also find that these shocks are important in accounting for fluctuations in these emerging economies and that these economies can’t shield themselves from news shocks by extending the maturity of their debt.

Now, back to FRED: Data can be used to test and illustrate the logic behind this research. The graph shows (in blue) the St. Louis Fed Economic News Index that’s used to predict the value of current real GDP before the BEA releases the official data. Assuming this index is good at capturing current news, we should see a strong correlation between this index and a financial index affected by the future performance of the economy. The index we chose (in red) is the S&P 500: This measure of the value of the stock market, as a measure of the expected performance of U.S. companies, serves as our measure of future performance.

The graph shows that the S&P 500 and Economic News Index move closely together, which suggests the logic is correct and that additional research could identify how news affects the U.S. economy.

How this graph was created: Search for and select “St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select the S&P 500 series; then click “Add data series.” From there (the “Edit Lines” tab), adjust the units to “Percent Change from Year Ago” for comparability with the news index. Now, both lines will be on the same graph, but their scales are quite different. To better compare the two, you can select “Format” and change the y-axis position to “Right” for the S&P 500 line.

Suggested by Ryan Mather and Juan Sánchez.

View on FRED, series used in this post: SP500, STLENI


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