Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED® Blog

The state of decline in retail sales

Using new Census data to compare U.S. states

Posted on November 19, 2020

FRED recently added more new data from the Census Bureau: 11 categories of retail sales for U.S. states. A previous post looked at national declines in retail sales, and national data continue to show the pandemic’s damaging effects on this sector.

As with most economic measures, though, the effects aren’t equally distributed across the nation. So let’s use GeoFRED maps to examine individual state experiences—specifically, July 2020 sales compared with July 2019 sales for (1) electronics and appliance stores, (2) gas stations, and (3) clothing and clothing accessories stores.

The first map covers electronics and appliance stores. National data show a decline of 4.7% year over year, which would be even more concerning in normal times but is not the worst downturn we’ve observed during the pandemic. The map shows a lack of uniformity, with some strong decreases (California’s –14.2% at worst) and some strong increases (Montana’s +21.3% at best). For consumer durables like electronics and appliances, timing is important: In hard times, households postpone these purchases. When things improve, they catch up. The lack of uniformity here likely stems from the different phases of the pandemic across U.S. states.

The second map covers gas stations: National data show a decline of 16.2% year over year. Here, the effects are much more uniform across states, with a narrow range of –19.7% to –12.9%, except for Washington’s –6.7%. It’s hard to find substitutes for gasoline purchases, and all states experienced a similar drop in demand for travel and commuting.

The third map covers clothing and clothing accessories, where the story is similar to the one for gas stations. National data show a decline of 21.9%, and state numbers range from –26% to –12% (except for New Jersey’s –2.9% and Connecticut’s –5%).

For national accounting purposes, clothing isn’t considered a durable good, as electronics and appliances are. And that may be for the good reason that, as these map shows, clothing sales behave differently from those durable goods sales.

How these maps were created: The original post referenced an interactive map from our now discontinued GeoFRED site. The revised post provides a replacement map from FRED’s new mapping tool. To create FRED maps, go to the data series page in question and look for the green “VIEW MAP” button at the top right of the graph. See this post for instructions to edit a FRED map. Only series with a green map button can be mapped.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann

Replicating economic research…on gasoline affordability

Posted on November 16, 2020

Here at the FRED Blog, we believe it’s important to be able to replicate economic analysis, which begins by identifying the data used in that analysis. That’s why FRED Blog posts include a list of the data series used to build the graphs. Moreover, all FRED data series themselves include a suggested citation.

The FRED graph above can help us reproduce some research published in our Economic Synopses series: “Gasoline Affordability.” The essay, published in 2004, compares wages with gasoline prices. To replicate the analysis, we searched for the two series mentioned in the essay: the CPI index for the price of gasoline and the average hourly wage rate of production workers.

The second FRED graph helps us test the robustness of the analysis by extending its conclusion about gasoline affordability and demand for SUVs past the original publication date. (Again, it was published in 2004.)

Between 2004 and 2009, when gasoline became gradually less affordable, the sales of lightweight trucks decreased. Nevertheless, despite the fact that gasoline was unevenly affordable between 2010 and 2020, the sales of lightweight trucks grew at a steady rate. Something other than gas prices must be driving demand for SUVs.

To learn more about auto sales, read Bill Dupor’s Economic Synopses essay “Auto Sales and the 2007-09 Recession.”

How this graph was created: Search for and select “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Edit Line 1” tab to customize the data by searching for and selecting “Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees, Total Private.” Next, create a custom formula to combine the series by typing “a/b” and clicking on “Apply.” Next, use the “Add Line” tab to create a user-defined line. Create a line with start and end values of 10. Last, use the “Add Line” tab to search for “Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Light Weight Trucks” and click on “Add data series.” To change the line colors, use the choices in the “Format” tab.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

View on FRED, series used in this post: AHETPI, CUSR0000SETB01, LTRUCKSA

Are we still in a recession?

What to expect from the NBER business cycle dating committee

Posted on November 12, 2020

The Downturn and Rebound

  • April 29, 2020: In its advance estimate, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that real GDP for the first quarter of 2020 fell at a 4.8% annual rate.
  • May 8, 2020: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 20.5 million in April—the largest one-month percentage decline on record (dating back to 1939).
  • June 8, 2020: The National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee (NBER BCDC) announced that the 128-month expansion (the longest in U.S. economic history, dating back to 1854) ended sometime in February 2020.
  • Since then, the U.S. economy has rebounded sharply, posting large increases in real GDP and nonfarm payroll employment and a large decline in the unemployment rate. But the NBER BCDC hasn’t yet announced an end to the recession…

The BCDC’s Methods

The BCDC patiently assesses business cycle peaks and troughs. For example, they announced that the trough of the 2007-2009 recession occurred in June 2009 only on September 20, 2010—which is a lag of 15 months.

The BCDC also emphasizes economywide economic indicators. In their view, dating peaks and troughs is best accomplished by looking at measures of activity that cut across all sectors of the economy, rather than a small number of key sectors (such as the Federal Reserve’s industrial production index, which measures output produced by the nation’s manufacturers, utilities, and mining industry). In their June 8 announcement, the BCDC indicated that real GDP and real gross domestic income (GDI) are the two “most reliable” comprehensive measures of economic activity.

The FRED graph above shows real GDP data from the BEA: Real GDP fell in the first and second quarters of 2020, but then rebounded in the third quarter. However, unlike real GDP, real GDI isn’t yet available for the third quarter because the BEA hasn’t yet reported corporate profits—a key component of GDI. Corporate profits will be reported in the second estimate of GDP, scheduled for release on November 25.

What Else Do They Look At?

Over time, the BCDC has examined several comprehensive monthly indicators, such as real manufacturing and trade sales, nonfarm payroll employment, and civilian employment. In its September 2020 announcement, the BCDC emphasized that real personal consumption expenditures and real personal income excluding current transfer payments are the two broadest measures of aggregate expenditures and aggregate income. Use this FRED dashboard to follow such comprehensive indicators. April 2020 was the trough month of all five of these indicators. Moreover, each of the indicators has since risen sharply, consistent with the increase in real GDP.

What’s Different This Time?

As noted above, the BCDC generally prefers to wait until there’s conclusive evidence that the economy has transitioned from a period of recovery to expansion. The unique features of this pandemic-spawned recession have, as the BCDC noted on June 8, 2020, “resulted in a downturn with different characteristics and dynamics than prior recessions.” So, while the data suggest that an economywide trough in economic activity occurred sometime in the spring, the pandemic remains a key driver of economic policy and the behavior of many governments and individuals worldwide. From that standpoint, the length and strength of the recovery is uncertain.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for real GDP, select the series, and start the sample period on 2014-01-01.

Suggested by Kevin Kliesen.

View on FRED, series used in this post: GDPC1


Back to Top

Subscribe to the FRED newsletter

Follow us

 

Need Help?

Questions or Comments
FRED Help
Legal
Privacy Notice & Policy