Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED® Blog

Employment losses are largest for the least educated

The FRED Blog has discussed how unemployment rates are inversely related to educational attainment and how they change during recessions. In short: Workers with more education are richer in so-called human capital and tend to be able to adapt more easily to changes in large-scale labor market conditions.

The FRED graph above shows employment levels after the COVID-19-related recession began. The length of the bars represents the percent change,  relative to a year ago, in the number of employed people 25 years and older. And these workers are divided into groups according to educational attainment.

Workers who didn’t graduate from high school had the largest losses in employment. Workers who did graduate from high school, including those  with some college or an associate degree, also experienced significant losses in employment but fared a bit better. Workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher were able, for the most part, to remain employed.

The second FRED graph shows the same four groups of workers but for the previous recession, from December 2007 to June 2009. Although these bars don’t go as far into negative territory, we see a similar pattern: At least initially, the more-educated labor force was more resilient. As the recession passed the 12-month mark, however, all education groups started to report losses in employment.

Low educational attainment isn’t necessarily a permanent trait, so it’s possible for workers who are laid off to exit the labor force, gain more human capital through formal education, and re-enter the labor force as more-educated workers. When they do this, they can expect to enjoy steadier employment. To learn more about education’s effects on employment stability, read the work of Isabel Cairo and Tomaz Cajner.

How these graphs were created: Start from Table A-4 of the Current Population Survey, select the series you want shown, and click “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, select units “Percent Change from Year Ago” and click on “Copy to all.” From the “Format” tab, select “Graph type: Bar.” Adjust the sample period to match the dates displayed in each graph.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

View on FRED, series used in this post: LNS12027659, LNS12027660, LNS12027662, LNS12027689

The state of the economy, weekly

Measuring the condition of an economy isn’t easy. The most reliable indicators are computed and released only quarterly or yearly, and then with a considerable lag. They are also subject to revisions. For a policymaker or anyone needing to observe and assess the economy, this can be very frustrating.

Fortunately, FRED provides access to some series that have higher frequency (weekly or even daily), are released faster, and don’t need revisions. Individually, these components offer only a partial picture of the economy; but together, they may be informative.

The Lewis-Mertens-Stock index shown in the FRED graph above provides this kind of informative picture of the economy: It comprises ten daily or weekly series, uses a statistical technique called factor analysis to determine what’s common among them, and scales the result so it can be presented as a percentage change of GDP from exactly one year ago. (That is, since the same day in the previous year.)

Daily GDP is obviously not known, so the index can’t be compared with any actual daily GDP reading. But it can be compared with quarterly GDP, which we do in the graph below. As shown by the tightness of the two lines, the index performs remarkably well.

How these graph were created: Search FRED for “weekly index” and the series should be among the top choices. From this first graph, use the “Edit Graph” panel to change frequency to quarterly (using the average). Open the “Add Line” tab, search for “real GDP,” select it, and change units to “Percentage change from year ago.” Change sample period to start when both series are available.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: GDPC1, WEI

Renewables have increased the capacity for electricity production

So, capacity utilization has decreased

As we’ve discussed in a previous post, electricity production has outpaced sales. That suggests a growing number of households and businesses generate some or most of their own electricity. Today, a related idea sparks our curiosity: the ongoing decrease in capacity utilization of electric power generation, transmission, and distribution.

The graph above shows the annual industrial generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity (blue line). It’s measured as an index with a value of 100 in 2012. The positive slope of this line means that the production of electricity has increased over time.

The graph also shows the capacity utilization of electric power generation, transmission, and distribution (red line). It’s measured as the percent of total electricity production capacity that’s actually put to use. Between 1982 and 1999, this line also had a positive slope, meaning that utilities were using a growing percentage of the installed electric power generation and distribution network. Yet, since its 1999 peak, average capacity utilization has decreased.

Advances in renewable sources of electricity—for example, solar and wind—might help explain the diminished capacity utilization in overall electricity production.

  1. Solar panels and turbines depend on the weather, and the weather can be unpredictable.
  2. To ensure the lights go on at the flip of a switch, solar parks and wind farms that supply electricity are built over broad areas where sunlight and steady winds can be expected, but not always guaranteed.
  3. So, to meet periods of high demand (say, a hot summer) in times of low production (say, cloudy or windless days), excess production capacity must be built in.

Recommended reading: This Economics Synopses essay by Diego Mendez-Carbajo sheds more light on renewable sources of electricity and energy markets.

How this graph was created: Search for and select “Industrial Production: Utilities: Electric Power Generation, Transmission, and Distribution (NAICS = 2211).” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “Capacity Utilization: Utilities: Electric Power Generation, Transmission, and Distribution (NAICS = 2211).” Next, from the “Edit Lines” tab, select Line 1 and under “Modify frequency” choose “Annual.” Repeat the same step for Line 2. Next, from the “Format” tab, under Line 2, select “Y-Axis position: Right.” Last, select “Mark type: Diamond” for both lines.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

View on FRED, series used in this post: CAPUTLG2211S, IPG2211S


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