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Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED® Blog

Rents still rising with regional riffs

Rent CPI has been outpacing headline CPI for 20 years

If you’ve been paying rent just about anywhere in the United States, you likely already know that rent has been going up. And the FRED graph above shows exactly that. Average rent in U.S. cities has risen by 85% in just the past 20 years. That’s 30 percentage points above the 55% inflation that’s occurred between then and now (July 2021, at the time of this writing).

Rent growth in the Northeast and South has stayed close to the national average in recent years, while growth in the West has surpassed the national average. The exception is the Midwest, where the regional average has lagged a bit behind the national average. But average rent in all regions still outpaces inflation, with Midwest rent growth remaining the closest (only 7 percentage points above). Since the end of the COVID-19-induced recession, though, inflation has grown faster than rent, potentially a result of the COVID-19-related financial stimulus and rent relief in the form of eviction moratoriums.

The second graph shows that rent growth in specific urban areas pretty closely matches the corresponding regional growth from the first graph. Renting is largely an urban phenomenon, so it shouldn’t be a surprise the biggest cities in these regions accurately reflect the regional trends: Rents in Boston, Detroit, Houston, and Seattle have all grown at rates that very closely track the rates in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West.

Given these rent increases, are there changes in regional population growth—say, population booms in places with smaller rent growth and busts in places with higher rent growth? Not quite.

Our last FRED graph shows the population growth of two urban areas that are above the U.S. average and two areas that are below it. This dividing line doesn’t separate areas of slow rent growth from areas of fast rent growth, however: Cities like Boston and Houston, with average rent increases, can land in either quadrant. Cities like Seattle are in the upper quadrant despite their high rent increases, and cities like Detroit are in the lower quadrant even with their low rent increases.

FRED allows you to create all kinds of data agglomerations and exercises, so you can examine these and other influential factors, such as vacancy rates, opportunities for building, and income growth.

How these graphs were created:
First graph: Search for “CPI rent primary residence south” and select the series shown. From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select the other series by replacing “south” with “west,” “northeast,” and “midwest.” Then add the rent CPI for the U.S. and the general CPI series. Change “Units” to “Index (Scale value to 100 for chosen date),” use “2001-01-01″ as the chosen date, and click “Apply to all.” In the “Format” tab, make the last two lines dashed. Adjust the date range to start on 2001-01-01. Second graph: Repeat the above, but for rents in Seattle, Boston, Houston and Detroit. Third graph: Repeat the above, but for populations of the same cities and the U.S. population.

Suggested by Reed Romanko and Christian Zimmermann.

Hawaii rises to the top in state-level labor productivity growth

New data from the BLS track output per hour worked in 2020

Join us on a road trip of FRED data in search of labor productivity.

The FRED Blog recently compared the increase in labor productivity during the COVID-19-induced recession with labor productivity in past recessions. Today, we use a recently added data set on state-level productivity from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compare labor productivity across states.

First, labor productivity is output per hour worked. So, when labor productivity increases, an hour of work yields more output, which means more goods produced or more services delivered with the same amount of effort.

The GeoFRED map above shows the percent growth in labor productivity in Hawaii during 2020. The residents of the very last state to join the Union (August 21, 1959) recorded the fastest growth in labor productivity last year: 8.5%.

How did the other states fare? The GeoFRED map shows Nevadans were not far behind Hawaii residents, as productivity in the Silver State grew 8%. But the blue coloring in the map shows states where productivity growth was negative during 2020. In descending order, an hour of work yielded fewer goods and services than during the previous year for Montanans, Oklahomans, Tennesseans, South Dakotans, and Idahoans.

The regional differences in labor productivity growth likely reflect idiosyncratic state economies. For example, goods manufacturing plays a much larger role in Oklahoma than in Hawaii. In that light, the uneven impact of the COVID-19-induced recession on the nationwide consumption and production of goods and services would have different impacts on state-level output, hours worked, and—ultimately—labor productivity.

How these maps were created: The original post referenced an interactive map from our now discontinued GeoFRED site. The revised post provides a replacement map from FRED’s new mapping tool. To create FRED maps, go to the data series page in question and look for the green “VIEW MAP” button at the top right of the graph. See this post for instructions to edit a FRED map. Only series with a green map button can be mapped.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

The recovery in leisure and hospitality employment

The FRED Blog has previously looked at the negative impact of social distancing on employment levels in the leisure and hospitality industry. Today, one year later, we take a look at how the overall economic recovery is reflected in this industry.

The GeoFRED map above shows the percent change between May 2020 and May 2021 of employment levels in the leisure and hospitality industry for each state. The data are seasonally adjusted, meaning they correct for the recurring ups and downs in activity during any given year. For example, winter ice fishing in North Dakota or summer vacationing in Florida.

Overall, the number of employees in the leisure and hospitality industry increased from May 2020 to May 2021 by a stunning average of 42%. The smallest increase was 20% in Oklahoma, and the largest increase was 73% in Delaware.

The high-growth states, with increases in employment of over 60%, are in dark green. Eight of these ten states are concentrated in the Northeast, including, in ascending order, Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Delaware.

Low-growth states (in purple) were mainly concentrated in the southern region of the U.S.

Ok. So employment has rebounded. But has it returned to pre-pandemic levels?

The bar graph above shows the level of employment in leisure and hospitality in May 2021 as a fraction of May 2019 employment. From this graph, we see that only one state has reached (and even slightly exceeded) its pre-pandemic level of employment: Idaho.

The rest of the states still lag behind in their recovery, and this graph suggests there may be opportunities for employment growth in this sector. Where are these opportunities more abundant? Relative to 2019, the Northeast states, where employment contracted the most last year, still have plenty of jobs to fill. Overall, the pandemic and ensuing recession had a large impact in the leisure and hospitality industry but employment opportunities in the sector are recovering rapidly.

How this map was created: The original post referenced an interactive map from our now discontinued GeoFRED site. The revised post provides a replacement map from FRED’s new mapping tool. To create FRED maps, go to the data series page in question and look for the green “VIEW MAP” button at the top right of the graph. See this post for instructions to edit a FRED map. Only series with a green map button can be mapped.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo and Victoria Yin.



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