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Which U.S. states may feel the trade effects of the Russia-Ukraine war?

Although the U.S. is not feeling the direct effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, U.S. consumers may already be feeling the negative economic effects of higher gas prices. Are there other effects on U.S. producers that may take longer to manifest? We explore this question with two GeoFRED heat maps of the value of exports by U.S. state: one for exports to Ukraine and the other for exports to Russia.

The map of exports to Ukraine refers to data from 2017, the latest year with available data. Colored dark green, the top exporters to Ukraine were states with export values between $59.98 million and $221.69 million. These states are spread out across the U.S., with California and Washington on the West Coast, Texas in the South, Iowa and Illinois in the Midwest, and New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania on the East Coast. At over $221 million, Pennsylvania had the highest value of exports to Ukraine. Washington came in second, at about $122.2 million.

The map of exports to Russia also refers to data from 2017. Unsurprisingly, state-level exports to Russia tended to be larger than those to Ukraine. Top exporters to Russia had export values between $115.08 million and $607.46 million. Colored dark green, the top exporters to Russia include California on the West Coast, Tennessee and Florida in the South, Illinois and Ohio in the Midwest, and Pennsylvania, New York, and Massachusetts on the East Coast. Illinois had the highest value of exports to Russia of over $607 million, about 2.7 times the value of the top exporter to Ukraine.

Top exporters to both Ukraine and Russia are likely to feel the economic impact of the ongoing war more deeply than other states, due to trade disruptions. Four states that are among the top exporters for both countries—California, New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois—may even suffer a twofold blow. The negative effects for any given state, however, depend on what proportion of its worldwide export value goes to Russia and Ukraine.

How these maps were created: The original post referenced interactive maps from our now discontinued GeoFRED site. The revised post provides replacement maps from FRED’s new mapping tool. To create FRED maps, go to the data series page in question and look for the green “VIEW MAP” button at the top right of the graph. See this post for instructions to edit a FRED map. Only series with a green map button can be mapped.
Suggested by Michael McCracken and Ngân Trần.

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