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Mortgages and credit from large banks

Detailing the Philly Fed's FR Y-14M data

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has a new data sandbox for credit enthusiasts to dig into: the FR Y-14M program. These 75 new mortgage and credit card data series reflect the aggregated portfolio of the largest financial institutions in the U.S., offering novel insights into some of the largest credit portfolios in the market. Save this quarterly dataset to your FRED account for a trove of unique intelligence on credit cards, first-lien mortgages, first-lien home equity loans, consumer habits, credit quality, and percentile indicators.

The Philadelphia Fed also provides a report on the data: Insights: Large Bank Credit Card and Mortgage Report.

Mortgage data: The most recent report notes that large bank mortgage origination volumes were flat in the second quarter of 2022 after declining sharply in the prior quarter. This contrasts with 2021, which saw the largest annual volume of originations since 2012 accompanied by rapid house price increases.

The FRED graph above shows mortgage origination loan-to-values (LTVs), which are increasing to pre-pandemic levels, rising from 68% in the fourth quarter 2021 to 75% in the second quarter of 2022. As rising mortgage rates reduce refinance demand and as originations fall, purchase loans constitute a greater share of new originations, which has pushed LTVs higher.

Credit data: Credit card originations have fully recovered to historic norms, and higher credit limits are being made available to new accounts compared with a year ago. The second FRED graph shows credit card balances: Coupled with an overall increase in consumer spending, credit card balances rose 16% on a year-over-year basis in the second quarter of 2022, bouncing back from near pandemic lows in the second quarter of 2021. That was the fastest yearly card balance growth since the FR Y-14M data collection began in 2012 and far greater than the typical 4% annual growth from 2013 through 2019.

With stronger consumer spending, card utilization has also begun to recover, hitting 18.5% in the second quarter of 2022. Credit card delinquency rates have increased modestly over the past year, though rates remain near their lowest level in the past 10 years, with fewer than 1% of balances reaching 90 days past due.

Details behind this large bank dataset: The credit card data are largely reflective of the total U.S. credit card market, representing roughly 3/4 of total U.S. bank card balances. The mortgage data provide new information on large bank lending and represent roughly 1/10 of the U.S. residential mortgage market.

The respondent panel for this dataset comprises U.S. bank holding companies, U.S. intermediate holding companies of foreign banking organizations, and covered savings and loan holding companies with $100 billion or more in total consolidated assets. These institutions are required to report credit card or first-lien mortgage data if portfolio balances exceed $5 billion or are material relative to Tier 1 capital. Firms with over $100 billion in total consolidated assets that do not meet these thresholds may also voluntarily provide FR Y-14M data.

For more information, see the data methodology.

How these graphs were created: Search FRED for “large bank mortgage 50th percentile” and pick the first series. Click on “Edit Graph,” open the “Add Line” tab, and search for the second series. For the second graph, proceed similarly by searching for “large bank credit card balances.”

Suggested by Jeremy Cohn.

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