Federal Reserve Economic Data

There are two commonly reported ways of computing the annual growth in real GDP.

First is the fourth quarter-over-fourth quarter (Q4/Q4) measure, which compares the amount of production of final goods and services in the December quarter with the amount produced in the December quarter of the previous year.

Second is the year-over-year (YoY) measure, which compares total production for the year with total production for the previous year. Both growth rates are plotted in the FRED graph above. The blue line is the Q4/Q4 growth rate, and the red line is the YoY growth rate.

While the two growth rates look similar over long periods of time, there can be significant differences at any point in time. Which measure should we use? Some examples may help.

Example 1: Higher-frequency data show that the global financial crisis began in 2008, which is shown in the Q4/Q4 annual growth measure. But the YoY measure records the recession as beginning in 2009. For questions about the timing of booms and recessions, the Q4/Q4 measure is probably better.

Example 2: The COVID recession began in the first quarter of 2020: The economy hit bottom in the second quarter, and it recovered substantially by the fourth quarter of the year. The Q4/Q4 measure therefore records a much milder recession than the YoY measure, which uses data for the entire year’s production. For questions about the level of production, the YoY measure is probably better.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Real GDP Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate” (series ID: GDPC1). Click “Edit Graph” and, under the “Modify Frequency,” change Quarterly to Annual and change the aggregation method to “End of Period.” Change the units to “Percent Change from Year Ago.” Then click “Add Line” at the top and add the “Real GDP Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate” (series ID: GDPC1) series again. Under “Edit Lines”, make sure you are editing Line 2. Change the “Modify Frequency” to be Annual and the Aggregation method to be “Sum.”

Suggested by Amy Smaldone and Mark Wright.

Treasury securities are reimbursed at maturity at par. This means that, if the Department of the Treasury borrowed $1000, they would pay back $1000 plus interest at the maturity date of the bond. But before its maturity, this bond may very well change in value.

A bond’s value may change according to how the market values that bond’s interest rate in comparison with the current interest rate for new bonds with a maturity around the same date.

The FRED graph above shows the ratio of the market value of the outstanding federal debt to the par value of that debt. If it is higher than 1, that means that older bonds are valued more than currently issued bonds, because current interest rates are lower than the interest rates for older bonds.

At the time of this writing, the ratio is below 1 because much of the outstanding federal debt was “subscribed” at a time when interest rates were low, while now the rates are higher.

The graph features a second line in red, representing the interest rate on newly issued federal debt with a 10-year maturity. Comparing the two lines shows that, when interest rates are higher, the market value of outstanding federal debt tends to be lower. And vice versa.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “Market value of federal debt” and take the series for privately held debt. From the “Edit Graph” panel, add the series “Federal debt held by private investors” and apply formula a/b. Open the “Add line” tab and search for “Treasury yield” and take your favorite one. Open the “Format” tab and set the legend to “right” for the second line. Adjust the sample period for when both series are available.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

Literary critics praise James Joyce’s 1922 novel Ulysses as a modernist masterpiece, where the stream of consciousness writing technique carries forward the narrative over a single day. This past Sunday, June 16, was its annual celebration, known as “Bloomsday.”

Bloomsday is once per year, but every day is data day for FRED. So, in this post, we celebrate FRED’s ongoing work to make data accessible by highlighting its continuous process of updating key economic data series.

The FRED graph above shows four overnight interest rates related to the monetary policy process:

• Two of them, reported by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, are the federal funds effective rate (in blue) and the interest rate on reserve balances (in red). Both are labeled “Daily, 7-Day” and are updated in FRED every single day of the week. Notice these are displayed as a continuous stream of data points.
• The other two are the award rate for overnight reverse repurchase agreements (in green), reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the primary credit rate for the Discount Window (in purple), reported by the Board of Governors. Both are labeled “Daily” and are updated in FRED every working day. They are displayed as regularly spaced strings of data points with gaps during weekends and holidays.

You can learn more about each of the individual data series shown in the graph here.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Federal Funds Effective Rate.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “Interest Rate on Reserve Balances.” Repeat the last step to add the other two series: “Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements Award Rate: Treasury Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations” and “Discount Window Primary Credit Rate.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.