On December 4, 2024, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released their 2023 real GDP breakdown. Here are some highlights from the data set, some of which are shown in the FRED map above:

• In 2023, 91% of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) expanded and only 9% contracted.
• Nationally, real GDP increased by 2.9%.
• Five MSAs grew at a similar rate as the national average, including the large MSAs of Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ, and Pittsburgh, PA.
• The MSA with the most growth was Midland, TX, at 42.9%.
• The MSA with the least growth was Elkhart-Goshen, IN, at -9.3%.
• The largest MSA in the St. Louis Fed’s 8th District is St. Louis, which grew by 2.5%, which placed it at 178th in the nation or right at the 50th percentile among MSAs.

The FRED map above digs deeper, into the county level. The county with the most growth was Throckmorton, TX, at 125.8%, and the county with the least growth was Lincoln County, WA, at -39.6%. Since both of these counties are very small and not a part of an MSA, GDP can fluctuate greatly from one year to the next. Growth is also not uniform for the counties of an MSA. Using the St. Louis MSA as an example in the map above, 6 of the 15 counties in the St. Louis metro area experienced negative growth while 9 experienced positive growth.

There are many reasons why some counties grow while others contract. For example, the industrial composition can amplify the degree of expansion or retraction in relation to the national overall business cycle. Demographic makeup and migration patterns of a county also can be a factor. These reasons are  explored in more detail in this St. Louis Fed essay.

How these maps were created: First map: Search FRED for “Real GDP MSA” and click on the first choice. Click on the green “View Map” button and then the orange “Edit Map” button. Change units to “Percent Change from Year ago.” Then, switch the number of color groups to 2, the data grouped by to “User Defined Method” and then define the scales at 0 and 50. For values less than 0 choose red to show contraction and values less than 50 choose green to show expansion.
Second map: Repeat the exercise with “Real GDP county,” but define the scales at 0 and 5. All St. Louis area counties were under 5, which helps focus on them more closely.

Suggested by Jack Fuller and Charles Gascon.