The FRED graph above tracks retail sales since 1992, split into two major categories: general retail and food and drink services specifically. To protect our analysis from inflationary illusions, we’ve deflated the series by the consumer price index (CPI).

Both retail categories have increased steadily over time, with declines during the financial crisis and the COVID pandemic. With the pandemic, the data are more interesting: After both series initially dipped, food and drink services struggled to return to previous levels, while general retail shot back up to an even higher level. Both series have stagnated for a couple of years now.

The second graph (below) provides some details on the retail side and shows some stark differences.

It should be no surprise that department stores continue to struggle while mail-order retail (including online shopping) has been booming for many years, including an explosion during the pandemic. What may be less familiar is that liquor stores were one of the very few types of retail stores that did well during the pandemic. This extra business lasted for a few years but has now settled back to previous levels.

So, if sales at restaurants and bars and liquor stores are stagnating, does this mean the US population is sobering up after a drowsy pandemic? To understand this better, we use one more graph (below) to reveal the wholesale of alcoholic beverages, again adjusted for inflation. And, indeed, sales are way down after a peak during the pandemic.

How these graphs were created: From FRED, navigate to the Census Bureau’s Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services by Kind of Business release table. Select the series to display and click “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Edit Line” tab to search for “CPI” and apply the formula a/b*100. For the second graph, also change the units for each line to 100 in 2020-02-01. For the third graph, search FRED for and select “alcohol sales.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, again add CPI to the line and apply formula a/b*100.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.