Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED Blog has discussed initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits (initial claims, for short) as an economic indicator. Today, we discuss whether initial claims above 400,000 signal weakening labor market conditions.

Our FRED graph above shows weekly initial claims data reported by the US Employment and Training Administration from January 1967 to May 2025: The latest available value at the time of this writing is 229,000 on May 10. The data are displayed in a logarithmic scale to accommodate the large COVID-19-related spike of 6,137,000.

The dashed green horizontal line in the graph is positioned at a value of 400,000. This “rule of thumb” value is commonly referenced by business economists as the threshold, if crossed, that signals weakening labor market conditions. Recent research by Michael McCracken and Trần Khánh Ngân from the St. Louis Fed investigates the accuracy of this figure.

Their results show that the threshold value that is most accurate for signaling economic turning points varies significantly over time. And, since 1984, it stands around 434,165, which is significantly higher than in previous decades. Their results also show the optimal threshold value seems more informative for gauging labor market conditions during expansionary rather than recessionary periods.

For more about this and other research, visit the publications page of the St. Louis Fed’s website, which offers an array of economic analysis and expertise provided by our staff.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Initial Claims.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to select the option “Create user-defined line.” Type “400000” in the boxes labeled “Value start/end.” Use the “Format” tab to select “Display > Log scale left.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

It can be useful to compare economic statistics across countries, including unemployment rates. It’s not always easy to do so, and our post today explains why.

The unemployment rate is a ratio of two measures:

1. the number of unemployed
2. the total labor force

Both measures are subject to their own definitions and interpretations, with some tricky details. For example, what counts as “looking for work”? This question defines who’s unemployed vs. who’s outside the labor force. Does perusing a job-posting website suffice, or does it require actively sending resumes to businesses? Do teenagers count? Students? What about temporary layoffs?

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) standardizes economic measures across its member countries and publishes harmonized statistics, including unemployment rates.

Our FRED graph above shows the OECD’s harmonized unemployment measure (in blue) along with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ measure (in red) for the US. Both these rates use the age range of 25 to 54 years and track each other remarkably well, hinting that their definitions are very similar.

The US unemployment rate that’s widely disseminated, though, covers those who are 16 years or older. This rate (in green) is higher and should not be used to compare the US unemployment rate with the rates in other countries.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “OECD unemployment rate US 25-54.” Click on “Edit Graph,” open the “Add Line” tab and search for “unemployment rate,” take the UNRATE series, and change the frequency to quarterly (average over months). Repeat for “unemployment rate 25-54.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

The FRED graph above shows the prices of a dozen eggs and a pound of chicken breast. (A previous post graphed price changes for those items.)

Egg prices have been in the news for their stark increases recently. But chicken breast prices not so much, as those prices have been relatively stable. Why the difference in price patterns for products from the same animal?

Economic theory would tell you this: If two goods are substitutes, their prices track each other well, as one can be replaced by the other if one becomes relatively more expensive. But eggs and chicken meat are not substitutes in either production or consumption.

Are they complements? That would mean that, if you eat one, you necessarily eat the other. Only few recipes call for both eggs and chicken meat, so they aren’t complements in consumption. But they could be complements in production: An egg-laying hen can also provide chicken meat. In a case such as this, excess demand for one over the other can lead to a divergence of prices.

But that is not the explanation either. Nowadays, chickens are very specialized. “Broilers” grow in a few weeks before slaughter, while laying hens live for years. The latter have more opportunity to catch diseases, and the current avian flu epidemic is affecting them much more than broilers, which can be replaced quickly. Thus, chicken breast prices are much less affected, if at all, by current circumstances.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “chicken breast” and click on the first choice. Click on “Edit Graph,” then open the “Add Line” tab, and search for/select the series for eggs. Finally, start the graph in 2006.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.