FRED has data on an array of consumer expectations, confidence, and sentiment that can potentially yield information about future economic conditions.
FRED recently added the home purchase sentiment index (HPSI) to that collection of data. Reported by Fannie Mae, the HPSI is a composite index designed to track consumers’ housing-related attitudes based on six questions from the National Housing Survey:
- Is it a good time to buy or sell a house?
- Will home prices and mortgage interest rates rise, fall, or stay put?
- How concerned are you about losing your job?
- How does your current income compare with last year’s?
The index has a value of 60 in March 2011, its reference period. Its March 2025 value (latest available at the time of this writing) is 68.1, with a high of 93.8 in August 2019 and a low of 56.7 in October 2022.
The FRED graph above shows the HPSI (solid blue line) along with the University of Michigan’s overall consumer sentiment index (dashed green line). Between March 2011 and March 2025, these indexes have broadly moved hand in hand. That may not be surprising because overall consumer sentiment encompasses home purchase sentiment.
But, since 2020, changes to housing market conditions affecting the financial burden of households may have driven these sentiments apart. For example, some estrangement is visible from mid 2021 to mid 2022, with a wider gap between the two lines.
To learn even more about the HPSI, see this Economic Letter published by the San Francisco Fed.
How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey: Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI).” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment.” Make sure to click “Add data series.” Change its units to be 100 on 2011-03-01 and apply the formula (a/100)*60 so that it has the same reference period and base value as the HPSI.
Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.