Federal Reserve Economic Data

On June 27, 2025, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released real GDP data for all US states for the first quarter of 2025. The FRED map above shows the percent change growth rates from the previous quarter: Dark red denotes contraction, light red denotes a small contraction, and green denotes growth.

Highlights

• 39 of 50 state economies contracted in the first quarter, with a national average of –0.5% contraction annualized.
• The median state contracted at –0.64%, and 28 other states had slower growth than the US average.
• South Carolina had the fastest growth, at 1.7% annualized.
• Nebraska and Iowa had the steepest contraction, at –6.1% annualized.

The St. Louis Fed’s Eighth District states all contracted except for Arkansas and Mississippi, which grew 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. The rest of the District was below the national average: Illinois had the steepest contraction, at about –2.2%, followed by Missouri, which contracted -1.8%. Indiana was the closest to the national average, contracting –0.6%.

How this map was created: Search FRED for “Real Total Gross Domestic Product for Missouri” and click the first available series. Click the “View Map” button and then the blue “Edit Map” button. Modify the units to “Compounded Annual Rate of Change.” Use “Format” to switch the number of color groups to 3, with the data grouped by “User Defined Method”; then define the scales to be –1, 0, and 5. For values less than –1, choose dark red to show steeper contraction; for values less than 0, choose light red to show a slight contraction; for values less than 5, choose green to show an expansion.

Suggested by John Fuller and Violeta Gutkowski.

Workers leave employment largely for two reasons: forced layoffs and voluntary quits.

In the past, the FRED Blog has used JOLTS business survey data from the BLS to analyze these flows. In May, FRED added another set of related household survey data compiled by Kathrin Ellieroth and Amanda Michaud (E-M), which provides a complementary perspective.

Our FRED graph above shows employee layoffs (blue lines) and quits (orange lines) from both these sources. It displays data since January 2016 for readability, but the datasets go back farther than that.

• JOLTS data are the dashed lines.
• E-M data are the solid lines.

Here’s an important distinction: The JOLTS data include employer-to-employer transitions, when workers move from one job to another without being unemployed in between. The E-M data include quits and layoffs that result in non-employment. One key difference is that the E-M data allow for observing where people will go following a layoff or quit: unemployment or non-participation. This can help researchers explain labor supply decisions of individuals and their contribution to unemployment.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Monthly Transition Rate of All U.S. Workers From Employment to Non-Employment Due to a Layoff” (from the E-M dataset). In the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select the other three series: “Monthly Transition Rate of All U.S. Workers From Employment to Non-Employment Due to a Quit” (also from the E-M dataset) and “Layoffs and Discharges: Total Nonfarm” and “Quits: Total Nonfarm” (from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics). Be sure to click “Add data series” each time. Finally, use the “Format” tab to change line colors and textures.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo, Kathrin Ellieroth, and Amanda Michaud.

In a previous FRED blog post, we discussed the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released by the FOMC this past March. In this blog post, we will again use ALFRED, the vintage data version of FRED, to compare the latest projections released in June 2025 with several of the recent projections through 2027 for the following variables:

• the unemployment rate
• core PCEPI inflation
• real GDP growth
• the federal funds rate

It’s important to note that these projections represent neither a committee plan nor a decision on future policy.

The first ALFRED graph, above, shows the unemployment rate projections for the fourth quarters of 2025, 2026, and 2027. Most recent values are shown by the gold bar. The median FOMC participant projects that the unemployment rate will average 4.5% in Q4 2025 and drop to 4.4% by 2027. This is just above the projection provided in March and only slightly higher than the longer-run unemployment rate projection of 4.2%.

The second graph shows the core inflation rate projections for the same years. The median FOMC participant now projects 3.1% inflation over 2025 and just-over-trend inflation of 2.1% by 2027.

The third graph, above, shows the median projections for real GDP growth. Growth projections for 2025 have been revised downward since December 2024, from 2.1% to 1.4%. However, the projections for growth over 2027 remain unchanged from the projections released in March, at 1.8%.

Our final graph shows the median participant’s projections of the federal funds rate. The most recent projections are unchanged from their March 2025 values for 2025, but are slightly higher than the March projections for 2026 and 2027. It is worth noting, though, that focusing on the median federal funds rate projection does obscure some of the dispersion of the individual participant projections. For example, projections for the year-end policy rate range from 3.6% to 4.4% (almost a full percentage point spread).

How these graphs were created: Search ALFRED for “FOMC unemployment” and take the median projection. Click on “Edit Graph,” choose a bar graph, and add three bars with the same series again. Finally, select the proper vintage for each bar. For the other three graphs, proceed similarly with “FOMC Consumption,” “FOMC Growth,” and “FOMC Fed Funds Rate.”

Suggested by Joseph Martorana and Charles Gascon.