Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED Blog has described key information about data contained in the “Notes” provided under each FRED graph. Today, to underscore, highlight, and emphasize that point, we offer another example.

Our FRED graph above shows quarterly data of US gross domestic product (GDP) between 1947 Q1 and 2025 Q2 from two different sources:

• International Monetary Fund (IMF) (solid blue line)
• US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (dashed green line)

The data plots don’t align, even after accounting for the fact that the IMF reports the data in millions of dollars and the BEA does so in billions of dollars. What gives?

The notes below the graph contain the relevant information, or metadata, about the data: The BEA data are presented as annualized values, while the IMF data are not. That means the BEA reports each quarterly data figure as if GDP were to remain at that level for a whole year. That makes comparisons with related and historical data easier. In contrast, the IMF report a quarterly number for each quarter.

To see this for yourself, click the word “Customize” in the bottom left corner of the FRED graph, which takes you to the series page on the FRED website. There, click “Edit Graph” / “Edit Lines” and customize “Line 1” by changing the formula a/1000 to a/1000*4. Voilá! The FRED graph now shows two identical data plots.

How this graph was created: Search “FRED for and select “Nominal Gross Domestic Product for United States.” Click on “Edit Graph,” select the “Add Line” tab, and search for and select “Gross Domestic Product.” Last, use the “Edit Lines” tab to customize “Line 1” by typing the formula a/1000. Don’t forget to click “Apply.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

What does it mean for a currency to be “strong”? The US dollar is considered stronger than another currency if one or both statements below are true:

1. The prices of goods and services are cheaper in dollars than in that other currency.
2. It costs more than one unit of that other currency to purchase one US dollar.

Analysts and politicians have described some current policies of the federal government as an attempt to weaken the US dollar because they consider it to be too strong for a healthy economy.

To see whether the US dollar has been weakened, we plot its exchange rate with the euro, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc. If the US dollar has indeed grown weaker since January 2025, we’d expect a decrease in the cost of a US dollar in these three relatively stable currencies.

Our first FRED graph, above, does show a downward trend in 2025, suggesting a weakening of the dollar against these currencies. The yen and franc are widely considered “safe haven” currencies. Does the US dollar also exhibit this behavior against the currencies of emerging economies?

Our second FRED graph, below, plots the dollar’s exchange rates with the currencies of the founding members of BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. These exchange rate trends vary: Since January 2025, the dollar has depreciated more significantly against the Russian ruble than against any other currency in either graph. But the dollar has been stable in relation to the Indian rupee and Chinese yuan.

Finally, for a balanced view of the dollar’s value, we plot the nominal broad US dollar index. This index is a weighted average of the US dollar’s foreign exchange value against major US trading partners, including the euro area, all founding BRICS members except South Africa, and other major US trading partners such as Canada and Mexico. Since January 20, 2025, we see a clear depreciation in the US dollar across this  basket of foreign currencies.

The takeaway: Recent exchange rates with stable currencies (e.g., the euro, yen, and Swiss franc) suggest a general weakening in the US dollar, which is consistent with the current federal administration’s stated preferences. But this depreciation is not uniform across all nations.

How these graphs were created: First graph: Search FRED for and select “Currency Conversions: US Dollar Exchange Rate: Average of Daily Rates: National Currency: USD for Euro Area (19 Countries).” From the “Edit Graph” panel, under “Edit Lines” tab, select Line 1 and change the units from euros to “Index” and enter the date 2025-01-01 to equal 100 in your custom index. Use the “Add Line” tab to search for, select, and adjust the same series for Switzerland and Japan. To create the vertical line in January 2025, use “Add Line”/”Create Line”/“Create user-defined line”: Set the start and end dates to 2025-01-01 and set the start and end values to 80 and 105, respectively. Use the “Format” tab to customize line colors. Second graph: Repeat the same steps for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Third graph: Graph “Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, under “Edit Lines,” change the units to “Index (Scales value to 100 for chosen date)” and choose 2025-01-20. To create the vertical line, set the start and end dates to 2025-01-20 and set the start and end values to 90 and 102.

Suggested by Paulina Restrepo-Echavarría and Mickenzie Bass.

The FRED Blog has celebrated each time we’ve published 100 posts. The commentary on these milestones is sometimes only tenuously related to the number of the post, especially after we surpassed 1000. Today’s post is number 1111, which evokes thoughts of numerologists and data-conscious folk who need to point out when their clock shows 11:11. Today is also just a few days shy of November 11, Veterans Day this year. And, for some, corduroy appreciation day.

So, we went fishing into FRED and came up with a couple of graphs for 1111. The one above shows that the share of GDP in GDP is consistently 1, period after period. Just to be thorough, the graph shows the data with both an annual and a quarterly frequency. We’ll keep this graph in mind for post number 11,111. Note that these series come from the GDP release, Section 1 (Domestic Product and Income), Table 1.1.10.

Our second graph comes from FRED’s collection of recession indicators: This series has a value of 1 for every month when the US was deemed to be in recession and 0 otherwise. Such series are called indicator series or sometimes dummy series. The OECD also used to present such recession indicators for its member countries until 2022. More can be found on this page.

You can cast your own thematic net into the great pond of FRED and see what you come up with.

How these graphs were created: For the first graph, search FRED for and select GDP share of GDP’s quarterly series. It may be easier to use the series ID: A191RE1Q156NBEA. Click on “Edit Graph,” open the “Add Line” tab, and search for GDP share of GDP annual series: ID A191RE1A156NBEA. For the second graph, search FRED for “NBER recession” and click one of the options.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.