FRED, ALFRED, and FRED Account will undergo scheduled maintenance on July 22 at 5 PM Central Time. Connection to some features may be unavailable. Thank you for your patience and we apologize for any inconvenience.

Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED® Blog

The evolution of import tariffs

Rates and revenue as a percentage of GDP

Tariffs and trade policy have been in the news for months, so today we’re looking at how tariffs have changed over time and the role they play in generating revenue.

Our FRED graph above displays two series:

  • The effective import tariff rate (dark-blue solid line, left axis) is the average tax rate the government imposes on imported goods.
  • Tariff revenue as a percentage of GDP (light-blue dotted line, right axis) is how much the government collects in tariffs compared with the size of the overall economy.

The effective tariff rate has generally been falling since 1960, continuing a longer trend that began around the 1930s. The percentage of tariff revenue has been falling since about 1990.

Both rates jumped noticeably in 2018 during the first trade war, more or less doubling by 2022. Despite this increase, tariffs still make up only a small part of federal revenue: about 0.3% of GDP per year, far too small to close the gap in the federal deficit, which has been close to 7% of GDP annually in recent years.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties.” Click “Edit Graph,” use “Customize data” to search for “Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods,” and click “Add.” Input the formula a/b*100 and click “Apply.” Next, click “Add Line,” search for and select “Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties,” and click “Add Data Series.” Use “Customize data” to search for “Gross Domestic Product,” and click “Add.” Input the formula a/b*100 and click “Apply.” In the “Format” tab, click “Customize” for Line 2 and change “Y-Axis position” to “Right.”

Suggested by Maximiliano Dvorkin and Melanie LeTourneau.

Trends in leverage

Debt securities vs. loans in the nonfinancial corporate sector

Each quarter, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System releases the Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1 tables). They include data on transactions and levels of financial assets and liabilities, by sector and financial instrument; and full balance sheets, including net worth, for households and nonprofit organizations, nonfinancial corporate businesses, and nonfinancial noncorporate businesses.

Recently, the Board partnered up with FRED to simplify and enhance the use of these data in FRED. In the FRED graph above, we provide one way of visualizing these data: ratios of debt securities and loans to total assets for the nonfinancial corporate sector. These two ratios tell us how, and how much, the US nonfinancial corporate sector is financing their operations through leverage.*

The blue line is our debt security leverage ratio and the green line is our loan leverage ratio.

  • From 1951 to 1990, both series generally moved together.
  • From the 1990 recession to 2003, we see a shift away from loans toward debt securities.
  • From 2003 to 2008, the loan leverage ratio was relatively constant while the debt leverage ratio decreased: Early in the 2008-09 recession, loans and debt securities were at similar levels. After that recession, we see another shift away from loans toward debt securities.
  • During the pandemic, both series spiked as firms were forced to increase their levels of debt to endure reduced consumption.

*We use data from the “Balance Sheet of Nonfinancial Corporate Business” (B.103) release, which is part of the Board’s larger release, “Financial Accounts of the United States” (Z.1).

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “TABSNNCB.” Click “Edit Graph”: Use the “Customize” field to search for and select “NCBDBIQ027S” and add the series. Insert b/(1000*a) in the formula field. Use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “TABSNNCB.” Then add series “NCBLL” and apply the same formula. Use the “Format” tab to change the line styles.

Suggested by Anna Cole and Julian Kozlowski.

Disposable income and spending growth

Overall trends and effects from fiscal stimulus

Disposable income and spending growth tend to follow similar long-term trends, as shown in our FRED graph above. Over the past 15 years, real disposable personal income growth and real personal consumption expenditures growth have averaged just over 2.5% year-over-year.

These growth rates can deviate from their trends for short periods, notably after one-time fiscal stimulus payments to boost household spending. Disposable income spiked in the months of each of these payments in 2012, 2020, and 2021 and then declined. For example, it spiked at 5.8% in December 2012 and then declined 4.6% in December 2013. Similar but larger stimulus payments to households also appear as income spikes in April 2020, January 2021, and March 2021, with subsequent declines.

These one-time payments didn’t cause an immediate rise in spending, as many households saved this additional income. So, there are notable increases in the savings rate after these stimulus payments. Households eventually spent this additional income, consumption growth rose, and savings rates dropped below what they were before the stimulus. The effects of the stimulus on consumption faded in 2023 as households depleted the excess savings.

However, strong wage growth and increasing equity values boosted disposable incomes and sustained consumption growth throughout 2023 and 2024.

The latest data at the time of this writing (April 2025) show aggregate income and consumption growth converging at around 3%, which is higher than the 15-year average. However, aggregate data tell us nothing about the distribution of income and consumption across households. Many households are dedicating a greater share of their income to servicing debt, and credit card delinquency rates continue to rise.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for real disposable income and click on the first option. Then click on “Edit Graph” and change the units to “Percent Change from a Year Ago.” Next, open the “Add Line” tab, search for real consumption expenditures, and click on “Add Data Series.” Change the units to “Percent Change from Year Ago” again. Open the “Format” tab and change the color to gold for Line 1 and navy blue for Line 2 after clicking “Customize” for each. Change the line style to solid for the second line. Finally, apply the time range 2010-04-01 to today.

Suggested by John Fuller and Charles Gascon.



Back to Top