Workers switch employers for several reasons, including better opportunities and pay. Working for one employer one month and a different employer the next is known as employer-to-employer worker transition.

FRED recently added new data from Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay (FMP) that track these transitions: The Employer-to-Employer (E2E) Transition Probability data, from the Philadelphia Fed, show how likely US workers are to engage in the practice of switching employers.

The FRED graph above shows the FMP-E2E data series presented in three formats: seasonally adjusted (orange line), not seasonally adjusted (greenish line), and a three-month moving average (blue line).

Between October 1995 and October 2024, when the data are available, the probability that a worker would transition from one employer to another employer in a given month ranged between 2% and 3%. The transition probability decreased during economic recessions, the shaded areas in the graph, and it seems to hover around 2.3% during most of the past decade.

This statistic helps gauge the pace of worker reallocation and its associated impact on worker bargaining power and wage differences in the labor market.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “3-Month Moving Average of Average Probability of U.S. Workers Making Employer to Employer Transitions.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “Average Probability of U.S. Workers Making Employer to Employer Transitions, Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted.” Repeat the last step to add ”Average Probability of U.S. Workers Making Employer to Employer Transitions, Percent, Seasonally Adjusted” to the graph.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.