Federal Reserve Economic Data

The title of this post may have reminded you that you need to buy some chocolate for some event in a couple of days. If you do, you may also notice that chocolate has become quite expensive. If you already made the trip, you may have bought less than usual or switched to some other sweet product. Either way, let’s look at the price of chocolate.

First, let’s be clear that chocolate has indeed become more expensive. Our FRED graph above shows the evolution of two types of candy: those with cacao-based chocolate and those without. The prices of both types have increased lately, but it’s very clear that chocolate and its derivatives have become significantly more expensive.

Why? The main ingredient of chocolate is cacao. (Cocoa is the term for its roasted form.) Its cultivation is concentrated in a few countries for climatic reasons, and it’s not produced domestically in the US. Cacao crops have been particularly bad in the past couple of years.

• Because of climate changes, current cacao trees aren’t optimal for their location.
• New trees take a while to grow and take 3 to 4 years to bear fruit.
• A virus is afflicting current plantations.

This lack of cacao supply has led to a marked increase in the world price for this commodity, as seen in our FRED graph below.

From a US perspective, do tariffs enter into the picture? The US imposed “reciprocal” tariffs on cacao-producing countries in February 2025, typically 15%. But these tariffs and some for other commodities that cannot be grown in the US were removed in November 2025. Thus, tariffs shouldn’t be a factor for this year’s Valentine purchase unless your purchase isn’t that fresh.

How these graphs were created: Search FRED for “Chocolate products” and select the right series. Click on “Edit Graph” then on the “Add Line” tab. Search for non-chocolate and select the right series. Click on the “Edit Lines” tab and select units “Index (Scale value to 100…)” with date 2011-12-01 and click on “Copy to all.” Open the “Format” tab, change the color of the first line to brown and the frame to pink. Finally start the graph on 2011-12-01. For the second graph, just search for “cocoa world price.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

On February 5, 2026, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released their 2024 real GDP breakdown at the county level. Here are some highlights from the data set, some of which are shown in the FRED map above:

• In 2024, real GDP growth was positive in three-quarters of all counties.
• Nationally, real GDP increased by 2.8%. However, the median county experienced growth of 2.3%. About two-thirds of counties experienced growth ranging from -1.6% to 6.0%.
• The county with the fastest growth was Carter County, Montana, at 76.6%.
• The county with sharpest decline was Baca County, Colorado, at -46.3%.
• There was a positive relationship between real GDP growth and the size of the county. Among the largest 10% of counties, growth averaged 3%; whereas, among the smallest 10% of counties, growth averaged -1.5%.
• The county with the fastest growth here in the St. Louis, Missouri-Illinois metro area was Madison County, Illinois, with 8.3% growth. Jersey County, Illinois experienced the slowest growth in the metro area, at -1.2%.

As noted above, there are some large numbers for growth and contraction of real GDP at the county level. This is because many counties are very small. Therefore, GDP can fluctuate greatly from one year to the next: Economic shocks such as a business openings or closings in a small town can have a significant impact on the community and, thus, the economic data. There are many reasons why some counties grow while others contract. For example, the industrial composition can amplify the degree of expansion or contraction in relation to the national overall business cycle. Demographic makeup and migration patterns of a county can also be a factor. These reasons are explored in more detail in this St. Louis Fed essay.

How this map was created: Search FRED for and select “Real GDP County” and click on the first choice. Click on the “View Map” and then “Edit Map” buttons. Change units to “Percent Change from Year Ago.” Then switch the number of color groups to 3 and “data grouped by” to “User Defined Method”; then define the scales at 0, 3, and the highest value (which is 77). For values less than 0, choose red to show contraction; for values less than 3, choose light green to show slow to moderate expansion; for values less than 77, choose dark green to show rapid expansion.

Suggested by John Fuller and Charles Gascon.

FRED recently added 7 data series about the business conditions and outlook of upstream oil and gas energy firms headquartered in the 11th Federal Reserve District.

In industry lingo, upstream refers to oil and gas exploration and production and the related services that support those activities. Geographically, the 11th District of the Federal Reserve consists of Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico. The regional Reserve Bank in the 11th District is in Dallas, Texas, so the dataset itself is called the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

The FRED graph above shows the three broadest indicators of business conditions captured by the survey:

• level of business activity (solid blue line)
• company outlook (dashed green line)
• uncertainty (dashed orange line)

The data are reported as diffusion indexes. You can read about another example of this type of index here. In short: The direction of change in the value of the index indicates rising or falling values of the underlying concept being assessed.

What do the indexes show?

The indexes of company outlook and level of business activity generally move in the same direction and at the same time. Between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025 (the last four observations available at the time of this writing), those indexes ranged between 7.1 and -17.6. That suggests relatively stable outlook and activity conditions. However, the index measuring uncertainty was above 40 during most of that time. This is noteworthy because, since 2016, when data are first available, the uncertainty index generally moved in the opposite direction of the indexes of business activity and company outlook. Perhaps that could be expected because oil and gas exploration and production activities are large scale and expensive operations that take many years to plan and execute. In short: Uncertainty undermines this industry.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Dallas Fed Energy Survey – Level of Business Activity.” Click on the “Edit Graph” button and select the “Add Line” tab to search for “Dallas Fed Energy Survey – Company Outlook.” Don’t forget to click on “Add data series.” Repeat the last two steps to search for and add “Dallas Fed Energy Survey – Uncertainty.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.