Federal Reserve Economic Data

On February 5, 2026, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released their 2024 real GDP breakdown at the county level. Here are some highlights from the data set, some of which are shown in the FRED map above:

• In 2024, real GDP growth was positive in three-quarters of all counties.
• Nationally, real GDP increased by 2.8%. However, the median county experienced growth of 2.3%. About two-thirds of counties experienced growth ranging from -1.6% to 6.0%.
• The county with the fastest growth was Carter County, Montana, at 76.6%.
• The county with sharpest decline was Baca County, Colorado, at -46.3%.
• There was a positive relationship between real GDP growth and the size of the county. Among the largest 10% of counties, growth averaged 3%; whereas, among the smallest 10% of counties, growth averaged -1.5%.
• The county with the fastest growth here in the St. Louis, Missouri-Illinois metro area was Madison County, Illinois, with 8.3% growth. Jersey County, Illinois experienced the slowest growth in the metro area, at -1.2%.

As noted above, there are some large numbers for growth and contraction of real GDP at the county level. This is because many counties are very small. Therefore, GDP can fluctuate greatly from one year to the next: Economic shocks such as a business openings or closings in a small town can have a significant impact on the community and, thus, the economic data. There are many reasons why some counties grow while others contract. For example, the industrial composition can amplify the degree of expansion or contraction in relation to the national overall business cycle. Demographic makeup and migration patterns of a county can also be a factor. These reasons are explored in more detail in this St. Louis Fed essay.

How this map was created: Search FRED for and select “Real GDP County” and click on the first choice. Click on the “View Map” and then “Edit Map” buttons. Change units to “Percent Change from Year Ago.” Then switch the number of color groups to 3 and “data grouped by” to “User Defined Method”; then define the scales at 0, 3, and the highest value (which is 77). For values less than 0, choose red to show contraction; for values less than 3, choose light green to show slow to moderate expansion; for values less than 77, choose dark green to show rapid expansion.

Suggested by John Fuller and Charles Gascon.

On July 19, 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the second quarter data for total nonfarm employees at the state and metro levels. At the state level, 36 states experienced positive job growth and 14 experienced job losses. Texas led all states in job growth, adding 46,800 jobs in the second quarter. New Jersey had the largest decline, losing 10,700 jobs.

The FRED map above shows the change in employment in each state during the second quarter. If you sum up the individual states, you’ll see a net gain of 316,100 jobs (0.20% growth). This is different from the reported number for the nation, which was 449,000 (0.28% growth). This difference occurs because the state level has different sampling and tends to have a larger margin of error than the national number.

At the metro level, 216 areas experienced job growth and 155 experienced job losses or no change in employment. Employment increased by 197,000 jobs across all metro areas. The Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim MSA led the nation with 18,900 jobs added in the second quarter. The Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis MSA had the largest decline, losing 7,800 jobs in the second quarter. These numbers tend to vary greatly from quarter to quarter, with even greater sampling errors than the errors at the state and national levels. So, be careful not to read too much into these data.

NOTE: These data are subject to future revision by the source, with an annual revision the following March. Our ALFRED database records vintages of the data, so users can view the data as they appeared at various points in history. The link takes you to employment for Missouri, as of July 19, 2025.

How these maps were created: Search FRED for “total nonfarm employees in Missouri” (or any other state). Click “View Map” and then “Edit Map.” Change the units to “Change, Thousands of Persons” and the frequency to quarterly with aggregation method “End of Period.” Under “Format,” select “User Defined Method” for how to group the data: Switch the number of color groups to 3 and change the colors to red for states that shed jobs (or a value less than or equal to 0), light green for states with modest job growth (or less than 10), and dark green for states with strong growth (or a value large enough to incorporate the rest of the states). For the second map, repeat the process with an MSA—St. Louis, for example.

Suggested by Jack Fuller and Charles Gascon.

At its September 2024 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 50 points, marking the beginning of a new easing cycle. In the months after, the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 3.65% on September 17, 2024, to a recent peak of 4.79% on January 13, 2025.

The FRED graph above shows 10-year Treasury yields for the past decade. An increase in long-term interest rates such as the 10-year Treasury yield is highly unusual at the beginning of a Fed easing cycle.

To investigate this dynamic, we can analyze the term premium: The term premium is the difference in the returns an investor expects to earn from (i) buying and holding long-term debt such as a 10-year Treasury bond and (ii) buying short-term debt and reinvesting it once it reaches maturity, such as buying 1-year bonds and rolling them over into new 1-year bonds every year for 10 years. In other words, it’s the amount of compensation investors demand for the risks inherent in investing in longer-term vs. shorter-term debt.

To compute the term premium, we need to estimate future short-term interest rates. In our second FRED graph, above, we present a term premium measure on a 10-year zero-coupon bond estimated by economists at the Federal Reserve Board. (Note that FRED also has term premia measures for bonds with maturities between 1 and 9 years.)

On January 13, 2025, the 10-year term premium reached its highest level since 2011, surpassing 0.8%. At that time, investors required a rate that was 0.8 percentage points higher to invest in long-term over short-term bonds for the same duration. As of May 2, the term premium stood at 0.5%, up from 0.05% before the September 2024 FOMC meeting. That is, the higher term premium accounts for more than half of the recent rise in 10-year Treasury yields, suggesting investors associate greater risk and uncertainty with investing in longer-term debt.

How these graphs were created: Search FRED for and select “Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis.” For the second graph, search for and select “Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond.”

Suggested by Brooke Hathhorn and Mark Wright.