Federal Reserve Economic Data

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Regional inflation

If everyone uses the same currency in the United States, shouldn’t prices and inflation rates be nearly uniform across the nation? To help answer this question, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics computes a limited set of consumer price indices for consolidated metropolitan statistical areas (that is, the agglomeration of neighboring MSAs). They don’t provide as much detail as the nationwide CPI and they’re not necessarily available at monthly intervals, due to data sampling issues. But they can be revealing.

The graph above compares Cleveland and New York City: NYC prices seem to be climbing more than those in northern Ohio. Note that this doesn’t say anything about the levels, only the evolutions. But is this inflation differential uniform across goods? The graph below eliminates shelter from the mix and the gap between the two is noticeably smaller. In other words, differences in inflation for a refrigerator or a gallon of milk are much smaller across the country than differences in inflation for housing.

How these graphs were created: Search for “CPI CMSA Cleveland” and click on the monthly series. From the “Edit Graph” section / “Add Line” tab, search for “CPI CMSA NY” and select the monthly series. In the “Format Graph” section, change the mark type to “square” (there are marks for Cleveland because data are not available for every month). Finally, change the sample period to start on 1984-01-01. For the second graph, repeat the procedure by adding “shelter” to the search terms.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: CUURA101SA0L2, CUURA210SA0, CUURA210SA0L2, CUUSA101SA0

The declining wage component in GDP

The graph above shows the share of GDP from the wages and salaries of employees, which has clearly been on a downward trend over several decades. This post isn’t about the reasons behind this decline, which would require analysis of (i) supplements to wages and salaries such as pensions and other benefits and (ii) proprietors’ income, which is earned by independent workers and business owners that compensates for labor and capital. What we are interested in is whether the decline has bottomed out.

Indeed, the share has been increasing for about two years now. Is this evidence enough to declare the trend has reversed? Well, that call is difficult. If you play with the graph by changing dates—for example, by ending the data in the year 2000 or 1987—you’d find a pretty similar situation in which the decline appears to have reversed. Yet, the share has continued to decline.

But is this time different? Visit this blog in a couple of years and we may have the answer.

How this graph was created: Search for “compensation of employees” and the series used in the graph should be among the first options. Note that a share of it in national income is also among the top options, but it has less current data. Once you have the graph for the series, add a series to the first line, not as a separate line. Then create a data transformation by applying the formula a/b.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: GDP, WASCUR

FRED remembers Bob Rasche

Rasche

We recently celebrated 25 years of FRED, and several posts have looked back at the origins and the originators of the St. Louis Fed’s data services. One person we haven’t mentioned yet in this blog is Bob Rasche. He was the St. Louis Fed’s director of research from January 1999 until 2009, when he was promoted to executive vice president and senior policy advisor. He retired in June 2011.

Bob, who was one of the most vocal and dedicated advocates of delivering high-quality data and information to the public, passed away Thursday, June 2. He is survived by his wife, Dottie, and children, Jeanette and Karl.

One of Bob’s legacies is that he expanded and enhanced FRED at a key moment in its history. He made a compelling case to the Bank’s president and its senior leaders, as well as leaders around the Federal Reserve System, that this mission of public service should continue and thrive. During Bob’s tenure, FRED grew in both size (from under 1,000 series to over 33,000) and recognition. FRED’s global presence and notoriety helped promote other efforts. In fact, Bob envisioned and nurtured a realm of St. Louis Fed data services, including FRED’s sibling sites, GeoFRED and ALFRED, and FRASER, the historical digital archive. He was sincere and energetic, and his process was legendary: He would arrive at work early in the morning, passionately describe the ideas that had occurred to him overnight, and a new project was born.

Bob hired and guided many of the people who are now integral to the development and success of the St. Louis Fed’s data services. The FRED and FRASER teams continue their mission with respect and gratitude for Bob Rasche’s leadership. It was an honor to work for him. It is inspiring to remember him.



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