Federal Reserve Economic Data

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The declining wage component in GDP

The graph above shows the share of GDP from the wages and salaries of employees, which has clearly been on a downward trend over several decades. This post isn’t about the reasons behind this decline, which would require analysis of (i) supplements to wages and salaries such as pensions and other benefits and (ii) proprietors’ income, which is earned by independent workers and business owners that compensates for labor and capital. What we are interested in is whether the decline has bottomed out.

Indeed, the share has been increasing for about two years now. Is this evidence enough to declare the trend has reversed? Well, that call is difficult. If you play with the graph by changing dates—for example, by ending the data in the year 2000 or 1987—you’d find a pretty similar situation in which the decline appears to have reversed. Yet, the share has continued to decline.

But is this time different? Visit this blog in a couple of years and we may have the answer.

How this graph was created: Search for “compensation of employees” and the series used in the graph should be among the first options. Note that a share of it in national income is also among the top options, but it has less current data. Once you have the graph for the series, add a series to the first line, not as a separate line. Then create a data transformation by applying the formula a/b.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: GDP, WASCUR

FRED remembers Bob Rasche

Rasche

We recently celebrated 25 years of FRED, and several posts have looked back at the origins and the originators of the St. Louis Fed’s data services. One person we haven’t mentioned yet in this blog is Bob Rasche. He was the St. Louis Fed’s director of research from January 1999 until 2009, when he was promoted to executive vice president and senior policy advisor. He retired in June 2011.

Bob, who was one of the most vocal and dedicated advocates of delivering high-quality data and information to the public, passed away Thursday, June 2. He is survived by his wife, Dottie, and children, Jeanette and Karl.

One of Bob’s legacies is that he expanded and enhanced FRED at a key moment in its history. He made a compelling case to the Bank’s president and its senior leaders, as well as leaders around the Federal Reserve System, that this mission of public service should continue and thrive. During Bob’s tenure, FRED grew in both size (from under 1,000 series to over 33,000) and recognition. FRED’s global presence and notoriety helped promote other efforts. In fact, Bob envisioned and nurtured a realm of St. Louis Fed data services, including FRED’s sibling sites, GeoFRED and ALFRED, and FRASER, the historical digital archive. He was sincere and energetic, and his process was legendary: He would arrive at work early in the morning, passionately describe the ideas that had occurred to him overnight, and a new project was born.

Bob hired and guided many of the people who are now integral to the development and success of the St. Louis Fed’s data services. The FRED and FRASER teams continue their mission with respect and gratitude for Bob Rasche’s leadership. It was an honor to work for him. It is inspiring to remember him.

Grandfather of FRED

fred_19610517NEW

Long before FRED, there was Homer Jones.

Jones was the St. Louis Fed’s research director (1958-1971) whose mission to make economic data more accessible to the public eventually evolved into FRED. Jones began his mission 55 years ago by mailing typed reports, starting with the one shown above from May 17, 1961. He pledged to provide these data to “anyone who thinks that such time series may have value” with the chief intention of illuminating “current objectives and measures of monetary policy and action.”

By the late 1970s, the St. Louis Fed was mailing its U.S. Financial Data publication to over 35,000 subscribers in the U.S. and Canada. It was incredibly popular and was even mentioned on the Today Show in the 1970s and cited as a useful source in Money magazine. In the 1980s, the Bank began to offer data over a recorded line. The rest is (FRED) history. St. Louis Fed research directors since Jones have continued to place a high priority on enhancing data services and providing high-quality customer service.

Homer Jones, shown below on the right with former St. Louis Fed president Darryl Francis, is honored in an annual lecture series.

2016 homerjones

Suggested by Katrina Stierholz.



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