Federal Reserve Economic Data

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A history of European exchange rates

Data during and after the Bretton Woods system

The Bretton Woods agreement, signed by 44 nations in 1944, established an international monetary system that

  • instituted the convertibility of the U.S. dollar to gold
  • set fixed exchange rates with respect to the dollar
  • and made the dollar the currency of reference.

The graph above shows the exchange rates for the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain between 1950 and 2017 with respect to the U.S. dollar. (By the way, the data for the euro area countries are calculated in euros using the official conversion rate for the years before the euro.)

It’s easy to see that, during the Bretton Woods era (1950-1971), the exchange rates were fixed, with the exception of a few managed adjustments.

The dashed black line in 1971 marks the year President Nixon unilaterally terminated the convertibility of the U.S. dollar to gold, which signaled the decline of the Bretton Woods system. After the system ended in 1973, exchange rates became more volatile, but also started to converge, given European collaborative policies to prevent excessive variation in exchange rates.

As of 1995, countries planning to adopt the euro had to meet currency convergence criteria, which helped with the stabilization of their exchange rates. In the end, the graph shows the current euro/dollar exchange rate for these countries. Of course, the British pound has always retained its own distinct exchange rate.

How this graph was created: Search for and select “Exchange Rate (market+estimated) for United Kingdom.” From the “Edit Graph” menu, use the “Add Line” tab to search for other data series. To add the vertical line, refer to these instructions. The “Data start/end” of the vertical line is 1971-01-01.

Suggested by Praew Grittayaphong and Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria.

View on FRED, series used in this post: XRNCUSDEA618NRUG, XRNCUSESA618NRUG, XRNCUSFRA618NRUG, XRNCUSGBA618NRUG, XRNCUSITA618NRUG

COVID-19 and job posting trends

Labor market conditions often follow the movements of the business cycle: Demand for labor rises during an expansion and falls during a contraction. So it’s not surprising that the COVID-19 recession has had an impact on firms’ hiring decisions and job posting trends. What might be surprising, however, is how the pandemic has affected the availability of jobs at different income levels.

The FRED graph here shows the impact of the COVID-19 downturn on job postings: Specifically, it covers the indexed trends on Indeed.com for three different wage tiers. (A previous blog post has more information on these data, if you’re interested.)

Middle- and low-wage occupations saw steeper declines in job postings early in the pandemic, plunging by 41.6% and 40.4%, respectively. Job postings for high-wage occupations didn’t decline as much, but they also didn’t recover as quickly: As of November 6, high-wage job postings were 17.3% below the 2019 trend, compared with 8.5% below trend for low-wage occupations.

These differences in hiring trends suggest that policymakers should take heterogeneity in labor market dynamics into account as they try to foster employment opportunities in a post-pandemic recovery.

How this graph was created: Search for “job postings index” on FRED, and the series should be among the top choices. From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select the other two series.

Suggested by Praew Grittayaphong and Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria.

View on FRED, series used in this post: IHLCHGHIGHUS, IHLCHGLOWUS, IHLCHGMIDDLEUS

Where retail sales have been booming

Sporting goods, home project supplies, and groceries are way up

We recently discussed how some areas in the retail sales sector have suffered dramatic declines during the pandemic. Today, we highlight three areas where sales have actually been booming.

FRED just added monthly state retail sales data from the Census Bureau, and we can enlist the help of GeoFRED to show the details. In the first map, we see that sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores have been doing remarkably well across the nation. From July 2019 to July 2020, national sales increased 18.7%, with a range of 7.7% to 29.1% across states. People have curtailed some activities during the pandemic, but they added new ones to spend their time on.

The second map shows building material and garden equipment stores, and it looks like people have ramped up their home projects. Nationwide, these sales increased 16.3%, with a range of 12.6% to 21.1% across almost all states, which is a remarkably tight spread. (We exclude our home state of Missouri, which had only a 4.6% increase.)

The third bright spot we focus on here is food and beverage stores. If you’re a regular reader of this blog, you may have expected this, since we’ve discussed how restaurant and bar sales have diminished as people have switched to consuming their food and drink at home. The map below shows how this shift has differed across states: from a 4.4% increase to a whooping 23.3% increase, which is remarkable for basic commodities. (One notable exception is a decline in Vermont.) Nationally, sales of food and beverages went up 13%. People may not have consumed much more than usual, but they did it differently—at home.

How these maps were created: The original post referenced an interactive map from our now discontinued GeoFRED site. The revised post provides a replacement map from FRED’s new mapping tool. To create FRED maps, go to the data series page in question and look for the green “VIEW MAP” button at the top right of the graph. See this post for instructions to edit a FRED map. Only series with a green map button can be mapped.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.



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