Federal Reserve Economic Data

In recent months, U.S. gasoline prices have risen significantly—because of both increased demand and increased production costs. Notably, but not surprisingly, oil prices have also increased. And although oil is a key input in the production of retail gasoline, oil and gas prices don’t always move in tandem.

When oil prices shoot upward, gas prices rise with them. And when oil prices fall, gasoline prices also fall; but they can fall at a slower rate. Economists refer to this market dynamic as “asymmetric pass-through.” A more colorful description of the phenomenon is “rockets and feathers.”

Our FRED graph plots the average U.S. price for a gallon of gas (left axis, blue line) and the average U.S. price of a barrel of oil (right axis, red line). The two lines largely move together, as we’d expect. When oil prices have increased, gas prices have immediately risen to meet them. That’s the rocket effect. When oil prices have decreased, though, the corresponding decrease in gas prices has often come after a short delay. That’s the feather effect.

While this phenomenon doesn’t occur every time oil prices fall, it can be seen in recent months: at the beginning of December 2021 and at the end of March 2022. To see this, zoom in on the graph either by moving the date sliders just below the graph or by selecting a shorter, more-specific time span in date picker at the top right of the graph.

You can find more analysis that describes retailer market power and consumer search costs as possible drivers of this asymmetry. Research also finds that the degree of this asymmetric pass-through varies by geographic region.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select the “US Regular All Formulations Gas Price” series. (Series ID: GASREGW.) From the “Edit Graph” panel (at the top right corner of the graph), use the “Add Line” tab (second from the left) to search for and select “Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – Cushing, Oklahoma” (Series ID: WCOILWTICO) by clicking the “Add data series” button under the search bar. Under the “Format” tab, go to the “Line 2: Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – Cushing, Oklahoma” section and change the Y-axis position from left to right. Close the graph editor window using the “X” at the top right. Adjust the graph to the desired dates using the slider at the bottom or the date entry boxes at the top right.

Suggested by Michael Owyang and Julie Bennett.

This FRED graph shows the number of $1 coins stored in Federal Reserve Banks. These data are part of a release that measures the volume and value of currency by denomination: It includes multiple banknote denominations but just one coin, the $1 coin.

The U.S. government has long attempted to replace $1 bills with $1 coins. The first was the Morgan dollar (1878-1904), which was barely used in circulation because the public preferred silver certificates. More sustained efforts started in 1971, as the production of $1 bills was significantly more costly than coins, as the bills needed to be replaced after only a few years. The Eisenhower dollar (1971-1978) was barely used because it was very large. The Susan B. Anthony dollar (1979-1981 and 1999) wasn’t well adopted either because it was easily confused with the quarter.

Finally, officials thought they had found the secret formula with the Sacagawea dollar in 2000, followed by presidential dollars in 2007: a heavier, gold-colored coin. They were shipped in large quantities to the Federal Reserve Banks. They quickly started filling the vaults because they still were not being widely adopted by the public. Because the traditional, familiar $1 bills were still in circulation, nothing changed. At some point in 2011, the Fed declared it did not want to receive any more of these coins. Since then, they have been minted only for collectors.

The graph clearly shows an accumulation of coins until 2011, when the number peaked at over 1.4 billion coins; afterward, the inventory slowly decreased when some businesses began asking for them, mostly as change in ticket machines. Given the sheer quantity of them, it seems reasonable to report them separately. Other coins kept in Fed vaults are in much smaller quantities and values.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select the “coin inventory” series.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) provides economic information about their member countries plus some non-member countries. One challenge they face is standardizing the various definitions of the various economic indicators to make them comparable. This means that OECD data may be different from what the national statistical offices report.

The OECD also conducts several surveys on business and price conditions. The FRED graph above shows the survey results for inflation in the euro area. The scale of the graph might surprise you, considering we’re talking about inflation, here: Are people really expecting inflation to hit 60%?! And was inflation 20% to 40% over the past few years?!

The key here is to understand exactly what is measured in this survey. Their question is as follows:

By comparison with the past 12 months, how do you expect that consumer prices will develop in the next 12 months? They will (++) increase more rapidly, (+) increase at the same rate, (=) increase at a slower rate, (-) stay about the same, or (–) fall.

Given this question, participating households aren’t describing the expected level of inflation, but rather whether inflation will go up or not. The responses are used to create an index that reflects these expectations. The index isn’t measured in a unit that’s comparable to an inflation rate. Rather, new values can only be compared with past values, thus indicating only the direction of inflation. This index is much like business condition indexes whose values do not mean anything by themselves, but are informative when compared with past values.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “euro inflation tendency.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.