Federal Reserve Economic Data

Every quarter, FOMC meeting participants submit their projections of key economic indicators. The committee releases the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) containing the median, central tendency, and range of their projections for the civilian unemployment rate, headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rates, real GDP growth, and the federal funds rate. Projections are generally provided for the current year, the next two years, and the “longer run.” In this blog post, we use ALFRED to look at several recent projections for the unemployment rate, core PCE inflation, and the federal funds rate through 2028.

The first ALFRED graph above presents the unemployment rate projections for the fourth quarters of 2026, 2027, and 2028, according to the SEPs released in March 2026, December 2025, and September 2025. Most recently, as shown by the red bar, the median FOMC participant projects that the unemployment rate will average 4.4% in Q4 2026 and drop to 4.3% over 2027 and to 4.2% in 2028. How does this stack up against previous projections for the same period? The December projections still had unemployment at 4.4% this year, while it ticked down to 4.2% in 2027 and stayed there in 2028. The September projections are the same as the current ones. In other words, there haven’t been any developments over the past six months that would suggest a materially stronger or weaker labor market in the near term than the median participant previously expected.

The second graph below contains the core inflation rate projections for the same years, and it has some more variation. While the median FOMC participant still expects inflation to return to target by 2028, projections of the inflation rate have been revised upward a bit for 2026 and 2027. In September, the median participant had projected core inflation to measure only 2.6% by the end of this year. However, over the past six months, that projection has shifted up by 0.1 percentage point to 2.7%. Similarly, the 2027 projections for March also shifted up 0.1 percentage point to 2.2%. This partially reflects stubborn inflation observed in 2025.

The final graph shows the median participant’s projections of the federal funds rate. The most recent federal funds rate projections are unchanged from what they were in September 2025 for each year from 2026 through 2028. You may notice that there is no green bar for the December release (or “vintage”). This is because the SEP projections for the federal funds rate were the exact same as the September vintage. We are able to see the March vintage, despite being the same, because the 2025 vintages also included end-of-year values for 2025. This means there was a change as we drop the 2025 observations for the March 2026 vintage.

How these graphs were created: Search ALFRED for “FOMC unemployment” and take the median projection. Click on “Edit Graph,” choose a bar graph, and add two bars with the same series again. Finally, select the proper vintage for each bar. Change the dates to 2026-01-01 to 2028-01-01. For the other two graphs, proceed similarly with “FOMC Consumption” and “FOMC Fed Funds Rate.”

Suggested by John Fuller and Charles Gascon.

Residential electricity prices have increased steeply in recent months, and there are noticeable geographical differences in prices.

Our FRED graph above uses data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to show just how high and variable electricity prices are: Between April 2020 and January 2026, country-wide average electricity prices increased by 44.4%. The average price of electricity was highest in the Northeast Census Region, at $0.265 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), and lowest in the South Census Region, at $0.164 per kWh. (For the states in the various Census regions, see this map.)

A Kansas City Fed report by Nida Çakır Melek and Alex Gallin discusses how artificial intelligence is related to the surging demand for electricity and the concentration of those surges in some US states. That analysis can help explain the data patterns in our FRED graph.

The FRED Blog has discussed related topics as well: regional differences in gasoline prices and the recent divergence of electricity and natural gas prices. The BLS data in our FRED graph here confirm the insights from these two posts.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour in the Northeast Census Region – Urban.” Click on the “Edit Graph” button and select the “Add Line” tab to search for “Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour in the Midwest Census Region – Urban.” Don’t forget to click “Add data series.” Repeat the last two steps to add the other two series: “Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour in the South Census Region – Urban” and “Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour in the West Census Region – Urban.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently announced that total non-farm payrolls fell by 92,000 jobs this past February. The press release noted a drop in health care jobs in that month as well. But it also reported that the health care sector had added an average of 36,000 jobs per month in the past year.

Comparison with other sectors

In our FRED graph above, we plot the annual percentage changes in total non-farm, health care, government, and manufacturing payrolls. In December 2021, annual increases in health care payrolls slowed to about 0.23 percent. Since then, demand for health care workers has grown, with annual percentage changes outpacing that of total non-farm, manufacturing, and government sectors since December 2022. Despite a cooling labor market overall, annual increases in payrolls are still positive for the health care sector, standing at 2.02% in February, compared with -1% and -0.77% for the government and manufacturing sectors, respectively.

The health care labor market and the recent jobs report

In February, health care worker strikes led to a significant cut in health care employment: -28,000 jobs. But the demand for health care workers is still propped up by an aging population, a trend that isn’t going anywhere. As seen in our FRED graph, the health care industry has become a primary driver of labor market growth. This trend is positive given the slowing labor market and the recent increase in unemployment to 4.4%. But an overreliance on the healthcare sector to boost job growth could become a growing concern.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “All Employees, Health Care.” Click on the “Edit Graph” button and change units to “Percent Change from Year Ago.” Click on the “Edit Graph” button and select the “Add Line” tab to search for and add “All Employees, Total Nonfarm.” Also change these units to “Percent Change from Year Ago.” Repeat for the government and manufacturing series. Click the 5-year option for the date span.

Suggested by Anna Cole and Michael McCracken.