Federal Reserve Economic Data

In a previous FRED blog post, we discussed the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released by the FOMC this past June. In this blog post, we will again use ALFRED to compare the latest projections released in September 2025 with several of the recent projections for the following variables:

• the unemployment rate
• core PCEPI inflation
• real GDP growth
• the federal funds rate

It’s important to note that these projections represent neither a committee plan nor a decision on future policy.

The first ALFRED graph, above, shows the unemployment rate projections for the fourth quarters of 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 according to the four most recent SEPs. Every September the FOMC adds another year to the projections. Most recently, as shown by the gold bar, the median FOMC participant projects that the unemployment rate will average 4.5% in Q4 2025 with a drop to 4.3% by 2027. This is slightly below the projection provided in June. The median projection for the unemployment rate in 2028 is 4.2%.

The second graph shows the core inflation rate projections for the same years. The median FOMC participant projects 3.1% inflation over 2025, with a return to the FOMC target of 2.0% by 2028.

The third graph, below, shows the median projections for real GDP growth. Growth projections for 2025 have been revised downward since December 2024, from 2.1% to 1.6%, but are above June’s projection of 1.4%. The projections for real GDP growth in 2026 and 2027 are slightly higher than they were in June, revised upward from 1.6% to 1.8% and 1.8% to 1.9%, respectively. The longer-run projection for 2028 is 1.8%.

Our final graph below shows the median participant’s projections of the federal funds rate. The most recent projections for the fourth quarter of 2025 are lower than their June 2025 values: from 3.9% down to 3.6%. But they are similar to the March and December projections for 2026 and 2027, at 3.4% and 3.1%. June’s projections were slightly raised for 2026 and 2027, at 3.6% and 3.4%. The federal funds rate is projected to remain at 3.1% in 2028. It is worth noting, though, that focusing on the median federal funds rate projection does obscure some of the dispersion of the individual participant projections. For example, projections for the year-end policy rate range from 2.6% to 3.9%.

How these graphs were created: Search ALFRED for “FOMC unemployment” and take the median projection. Click on “Edit Graph,” choose a bar graph, and add three bars with the same series again. Finally, select the proper vintage for each bar. For the other three graphs, proceed similarly with “FOMC Consumption,” “FOMC Growth,” and “FOMC Fed Funds Rate.”

Suggested by John Fuller and Charles Gascon.

During the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many credit card holders improved their repayment histories and enjoyed a noticeable boost in credit scores. However, research by Juan M. Sánchez and Masataka Mori at the St. Louis Fed has underscored the temporary nature of the factors driving that improvement in creditworthiness.

Our FRED graph above uses large bank credit card data, reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, to offer a complementary perspective on this topic:

• The solid blue line shows the percentage of credit card accounts that recorded an increase in their borrowing limits. Between 2013 and 2019, that percentage rose steadily, declined precipitously during 2020, and quickly bounced back to its pre-pandemic trend.
• The dashed green line shows the percentage of credit card accounts that recorded a decrease in their borrowing limits. The uptick in 2020 doesn’t stand out all that much compared with the entire period between 2013 and 2024.

Thus, the short-lived boost to credit scores referenced earlier did not seem to translate into broad changes to borrowing limits.

Our interpretation of the data matches the findings from recent research by Joanna Stavins at the Boston Fed. She notes that, as of late 2024, “any erosion of lending standards that took place during the early stages of the pandemic has been reversed.” In other words, the credit card industry has seemingly returned to its long-term, relatively stable practices.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Large Bank Consumer Credit Card Balances: Accounts with Credit Line Increase.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “Large Bank Consumer Credit Card Balances: Accounts with Credit Line Decrease.”

Suggested by Noelle Pak and Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

Visit any data series page in FRED and you’ll see a “Notes” section below the graph. The metadata there provide details that help tell the story behind the numbers. Arguably, the single most important metadata are the data units.

Our FRED graph above shows potato farming acreage in four different countries—the US, France, Germany, and Great Britain—between 1829 and 1951.

Just as languages can differ across countries, so can the units of measure. So when using data to measure the land area used to plant potatoes, potatos, Kartoffeln, or pommes de terre, it’s important to confirm all data series are using the same units.

In this case, data from continental Europe were reported using the decimal system (in hectares) and data from Great Britain and the US were reported using the imperial system (in acres). Fortunately, FRED makes data customization very easy: Use the “Edit Line” tab to select the relevant series that use hectares and input the formula a*2.47105 to effectively convert those units to acres.

After customizing the potato acreage data, we can properly compare the disparate size of potato farming across these four countries. Note the very large land area that Germany devoted to potatoes. If we hadn’t accounted for the difference in units, we could have easily drawn a completely different conclusion. What a dis-tater that could have been.

A note about the metadata in FRED’s notes section:

• Source. Name of the organization reporting the data.
• Release. Name of the publication in which the data are reported.
• Units. Standardized quantities used to measure a concept.
• Notes. Additional information about the methods used to report the data or guidelines for sharing those data.
• Suggested citation. Bibliographical citation of the data series shown in the graph, ready to copy and paste .

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Potato Crop Acreage for United States.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “Potato Crop Acreage for France.” Click on “Add data series.” Next, use the “Edit Lines” tab to select “Line 2” and customize the data by typing the formula “a*2.47105” and clicking “Apply.” Repeat the “Add data series” steps to search for and add “Potato Crop Acreage for England, Wales, Scotland, Great Britain” and “Potato Crop Acreage for Germany.” Lastly, customize the data for Germany applying the formula spelled out above.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.