Federal Reserve Economic Data

Treasury securities are reimbursed at maturity at par. This means that, if the Department of the Treasury borrowed $1000, they would pay back $1000 plus interest at the maturity date of the bond. But before its maturity, this bond may very well change in value.

A bond’s value may change according to how the market values that bond’s interest rate in comparison with the current interest rate for new bonds with a maturity around the same date.

The FRED graph above shows the ratio of the market value of the outstanding federal debt to the par value of that debt. If it is higher than 1, that means that older bonds are valued more than currently issued bonds, because current interest rates are lower than the interest rates for older bonds.

At the time of this writing, the ratio is below 1 because much of the outstanding federal debt was “subscribed” at a time when interest rates were low, while now the rates are higher.

The graph features a second line in red, representing the interest rate on newly issued federal debt with a 10-year maturity. Comparing the two lines shows that, when interest rates are higher, the market value of outstanding federal debt tends to be lower. And vice versa.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “Market value of federal debt” and take the series for privately held debt. From the “Edit Graph” panel, add the series “Federal debt held by private investors” and apply formula a/b. Open the “Add line” tab and search for “Treasury yield” and take your favorite one. Open the “Format” tab and set the legend to “right” for the second line. Adjust the sample period for when both series are available.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

Literary critics praise James Joyce’s 1922 novel Ulysses as a modernist masterpiece, where the stream of consciousness writing technique carries forward the narrative over a single day. This past Sunday, June 16, was its annual celebration, known as “Bloomsday.”

Bloomsday is once per year, but every day is data day for FRED. So, in this post, we celebrate FRED’s ongoing work to make data accessible by highlighting its continuous process of updating key economic data series.

The FRED graph above shows four overnight interest rates related to the monetary policy process:

• Two of them, reported by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, are the federal funds effective rate (in blue) and the interest rate on reserve balances (in red). Both are labeled “Daily, 7-Day” and are updated in FRED every single day of the week. Notice these are displayed as a continuous stream of data points.
• The other two are the award rate for overnight reverse repurchase agreements (in green), reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the primary credit rate for the Discount Window (in purple), reported by the Board of Governors. Both are labeled “Daily” and are updated in FRED every working day. They are displayed as regularly spaced strings of data points with gaps during weekends and holidays.

You can learn more about each of the individual data series shown in the graph here.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Federal Funds Effective Rate.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “Interest Rate on Reserve Balances.” Repeat the last step to add the other two series: “Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements Award Rate: Treasury Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations” and “Discount Window Primary Credit Rate.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

The fiscal conditions of US states vary quite a bit. Do they vary more by geography or over time? Let’s find out.

The first FRED graph above shows the total state tax revenue divided by the state population for five large states. (We don’t want 50 states on a single graph.) We divide by population because larger states obviously have more revenue and we must normalize that revenue per resident. In this view, taxes vary quite a bit across states. But what about over time?

To answer this question, we need to make sure we deal with inflation. Tax revenue may simply have increased because everything became more expensive. In our second graph, we take the first graph and divide it all by the consumer price index. In this view, we see tax revenue per capita tends to increase over time—with the exception of Florida, where it’s relatively stable.

But are these the right measurements? Indeed, incomes have increased as well, even after taking inflation into account. So our last graph divides tax revenue (per capita) by personal income (per capita). In this view, we see that revenue increases slightly in some states and decreases slightly in others. Nothing too dramatic.

A little more meaning behind the numbers: State taxes amount to 1-2% of personal income. Keep in mind that these are just state taxes. There’s also an array of taxes at local levels (county, town, school district, fire district, etc.) that may shift the “ranking” of states.

How these graphs were created: Search FRED for “state tax collections” and select any state. Below the resulting graph, look for the release table. In that table, select the states you want displayed and click on the “Add to graph” button. Now that you have a multi-series graph, use thew “Edit Graph” panel: Use “Edit Line 1” to add the series for the resident population of that state and apply formula a/b. Repeat for each line/state. You have the first graph. For the second graph, repeat by adding the CPI to each line and applying formula a/b/b. For the third graph, beyond the state tax collections, add state per capita personal income and apply formula a/b*1000.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.