Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED Blog has used data from the US Census to discuss the flows of net migration at the county and state levels. Those data have no information about the age of the people who switch places of residence, but other datasets offer insights into who moves and where they move.

The FRED map above shows 2022 data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics about the average age of the person tagged as the “individual of reference” in its Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES). This is the first person listed in the survey response of a “consumer unit,” which is a group of people living together. There are four Census regions and four colored data ranges, each representing a slightly different age group. Thanks to improvements in living standards, the US population is living longer and its average age is rising.

Recent research from Victoria Gregory and Kevin Bloodworth at the St Louis Fed studies where people choose to live as they age. Here’s what they find: In their 20s, members of the Silent Generation, Baby Boomers, Generation X, and Millennials were more likely to live in large central metropolitan areas than members of Generation Z. Urban flight to the suburbs seems to generally characterize location decisions for people in their 30s, but it is too early to tell whether and where members of Generation Z may choose to move.

For more about this and other research, visit the website of the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, which offers an array of economic analysis and expertise provided by our staff.

How this map was created: Search FRED for and select “Consumer Unit Characteristics: Age of Reference Person by Region: Residence in the South Census Region.” Click on the green button “View Map.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

The price of housing has been a major topic in the United States over the past decade, especially given the expansion of the housing market over the past 4 years.

In this FRED blog post, we want to measure how affordable homes have been for the typical earner, focusing on the house price itself but not factoring-in the cost of a mortgage. So, we compare the median weekly earnings for those 25 years and older with the S&P US national home price index, using the first quarter of 2020 as a point of reference.

Our graph shows that, since the first quarter of 2012, there’s been a gradual increase in the house price index relative to wages. This is followed by a dip at the beginning of the pandemic and a rapid increase in the house price index relative to wages in the subsequent quarters. This is consistent with rising home prices throughout the pandemic.

After this peak in the price index relative to wages, in the second quarter of 2022, our index stagnates around the same values as the peak during the 2005-06 housing bubble. Will the index follow a path similar to the one from 2007 to 2012? Only the future will tell.

How this graph was created: In FRED, search for and select the series “S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.” From the “Edit Graph” panel in the top right corner, use the Edit Line 1  option to customize the data and add the series “Employed Full Time: Median Usual Weekly Nominal Earnings (Second Quartile): Wage and Salary Workers: 25 years and over.” In the formula section, divide series a (price) with series b (earnings). Select the units to be an index and choose the reference date for the index to be 2020-01-01. Finally, change the start date to 2001-01-01.

Suggested by Alex Bick and Kevin Bloodworth.

In our previous FRED Blog post, we argued that the price of electricity varies by region and fluctuates but does not appear to increase with respect to other goods. Today, we take a quick look at the price of natural gas.

In the FRED graph above, we’re looking at the price of natural gas at a particular location: the Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana. This is the connection point of several natural gas pipelines, and local markets are typically priced by a differential from the Henry Hub price. We use monthly prices here to avoid the wild fluctuations of daily prices.

So, how has this reference price for natural gas evolved? It is striking how it’s now the lowest it has ever been. And we haven’t even taken into account the inflation in general prices since the start of this data series. The main factor has been the big increase in the supply of natural gas, in particular through fracking. Another factor has been the building of many pipelines, which allow suppliers to avoid higher prices through arbitrage.

There have been fluctuations, though. One recent example is the winter of 2022, when Russian pipelines in Europe closed at the start of the invasion of Ukraine and increased worldwide natural gas prices. This shock resolved in a year thanks to major energy conversion efforts across Europe.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “natural gas price” and take the monthly series.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.