Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED® Blog

The state of the economy, weekly

Measuring the condition of an economy isn’t easy. The most reliable indicators are computed and released only quarterly or yearly, and then with a considerable lag. They are also subject to revisions. For a policymaker or anyone needing to observe and assess the economy, this can be very frustrating.

Fortunately, FRED provides access to some series that have higher frequency (weekly or even daily), are released faster, and don’t need revisions. Individually, these components offer only a partial picture of the economy; but together, they may be informative.

The Lewis-Mertens-Stock index shown in the FRED graph above provides this kind of informative picture of the economy: It comprises ten daily or weekly series, uses a statistical technique called factor analysis to determine what’s common among them, and scales the result so it can be presented as a percentage change of GDP from exactly one year ago. (That is, since the same day in the previous year.)

Daily GDP is obviously not known, so the index can’t be compared with any actual daily GDP reading. But it can be compared with quarterly GDP, which we do in the graph below. As shown by the tightness of the two lines, the index performs remarkably well.

How these graph were created: Search FRED for “weekly index” and the series should be among the top choices. From this first graph, use the “Edit Graph” panel to change frequency to quarterly (using the average). Open the “Add Line” tab, search for “real GDP,” select it, and change units to “Percentage change from year ago.” Change sample period to start when both series are available.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: GDPC1, WEI

Renewables have increased the capacity for electricity production

So, capacity utilization has decreased

As we’ve discussed in a previous post, electricity production has outpaced sales. That suggests a growing number of households and businesses generate some or most of their own electricity. Today, a related idea sparks our curiosity: the ongoing decrease in capacity utilization of electric power generation, transmission, and distribution.

The graph above shows the annual industrial generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity (blue line). It’s measured as an index with a value of 100 in 2012. The positive slope of this line means that the production of electricity has increased over time.

The graph also shows the capacity utilization of electric power generation, transmission, and distribution (red line). It’s measured as the percent of total electricity production capacity that’s actually put to use. Between 1982 and 1999, this line also had a positive slope, meaning that utilities were using a growing percentage of the installed electric power generation and distribution network. Yet, since its 1999 peak, average capacity utilization has decreased.

Advances in renewable sources of electricity—for example, solar and wind—might help explain the diminished capacity utilization in overall electricity production.

  1. Solar panels and turbines depend on the weather, and the weather can be unpredictable.
  2. To ensure the lights go on at the flip of a switch, solar parks and wind farms that supply electricity are built over broad areas where sunlight and steady winds can be expected, but not always guaranteed.
  3. So, to meet periods of high demand (say, a hot summer) in times of low production (say, cloudy or windless days), excess production capacity must be built in.

Recommended reading: This Economics Synopses essay by Diego Mendez-Carbajo sheds more light on renewable sources of electricity and energy markets.

How this graph was created: Search for and select “Industrial Production: Utilities: Electric Power Generation, Transmission, and Distribution (NAICS = 2211).” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “Capacity Utilization: Utilities: Electric Power Generation, Transmission, and Distribution (NAICS = 2211).” Next, from the “Edit Lines” tab, select Line 1 and under “Modify frequency” choose “Annual.” Repeat the same step for Line 2. Next, from the “Format” tab, under Line 2, select “Y-Axis position: Right.” Last, select “Mark type: Diamond” for both lines.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

View on FRED, series used in this post: CAPUTLG2211S, IPG2211S

The unemployment benefits of the CARES Act

Expanding the definition of unemployed

If you’ve visited this blog before, you may have come across the official definition of unemployed: One needs to be currently looking for work, ready to work, and willing to work.

There are also requirements for receiving unemployment insurance benefits (e.g., previous work, waiting periods, eligibility periods, and asset tests) that vary across time periods and states. Plus, specific circumstances may affect benefits: How did you lose your job? Did you work sufficiently long before unemployment? Did you wait long enough before making your claim? Has your eligibility expired?

Given all these criteria and the time it takes to process a claim, there should be more unemployed persons overall than persons currently receiving unemployment insurance benefits. But the FRED graph above shows that the impossible has happened: More people are receiving benefits than are unemployed. What gives?

The specifics of the CARES Act allow people to receive benefits so that they do not have to report to work if their health conditions make it too dangerous. In such cases, the beneficiary is not technically unemployed, as there is no active job search going on. But benefits are still received through the unemployment insurance program of the person’s respective state.

How this graph was created: Search for and select the “continued claims” series. From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select the “unemployment level” series; then apply formula a*1000 to get the same units. Finally, restrict the sample period to highlight the discussed episode.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: CCSA, UNEMPLOY


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