Federal Reserve Economic Data

In recent decades, the US has grown increasingly dependent on imports from China to access a vast variety of goods. The FRED graph above shows Chinese import data: From 1990 through 2016, as China became a globally integrated economy, the US import share from China grew steadily, from close to 2% of aggregate US imports in the late 1980s to close to 22% in 2016.

In recent years, however, policies have been enacted to reduce this dependence on China, as illustrated by the trade war during the Trump administration and the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022. Indeed, the US import share from China has declined from 22% to 14% since 2016.

As the cost of importing Chinese goods has increased, the incentive to produce goods domestically has also increased. So, to what extent is the US-China decoupling leading to a resurgence of American manufacturing? We investigate this question in the FRED graph below, plotting manufacturing investment in structure and equipment, as well as employment and output.

On the one hand, there has been a resurgence of manufacturing investment in structures since 2020. These investments may indicate that American manufacturing overall is indeed resurging, with investments in structures more than doubling in a short period.

On the other hand, output, employment, and investments in equipment haven’t increased in tandem with the growth of investment in structures. We interpret these findings as evidence that American manufacturing may be resurging, but that the resurgence may take time: Investment in structures is time-intensive and precedes the growth of employment and output that results once new manufacturing plants are completed.

How these graphs were created: First graph: Search FRED for and select “U.S. Imports of Goods by Customs Basis from China.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use “Edit Line 1” to add “U.S. Imports of Goods by Customs Basis from World” to the existing series. Under “Customize data,” type a/b into the formula bar, and click “Apply.” Set “Modify Frequency” to “Annual.”
Second graph: Search FRED for and select “Real private fixed investment: Nonresidential: Structures: Manufacturing/Real Gross Domestic Product.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use “Add Line” to add “Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Nonresidential: Equipment,” “Manufacturing Sector: Real Sectoral Output for All Workers,” and “All Employees, Manufacturing.” Under the “Edit Line” tab for each of the four lines, change the “Units” to “Index (Scale value to 100 for chosen date)” and enter “2010-01-01” for the base period.

Suggested by Jason Dunn and Fernando Leibovici.

March 14, also written as 3/14, is widely celebrated as π day. This is taken seriously in St. Louis, which is home to the 314 telephone area code.

The FRED Blog team is always eager to celebrate the occasion, so today we offer some pie charts. Now, using pie charts is rarely a good idea. They’re not as informative as other chart types. But today we make an exception and use three of them to track different groups’ relationships with bakery products—including pie, of course!

The chart above shows how much individuals from six age categories spend on bakery products. Imagine the United States as a large family with one member from each age group. If each were spending the same amount on bakery products, we would see a pie with six equal slices. But we do not see that. It seems that, as age increases, so does pie consumption. An advantage to becoming older, perhaps?

The second pie chart shows a different family in which each member belongs to a different income category. Not surprisingly, the poorer cousin spends less on bakery products than the wealthier grandparent. Qu’ils mangent de la brioche!

And our last pie shows the four different Census regions. Here, the differences are more subtle. It looks like bakery products are more appreciated in the Northeast and the West. Or they’re simply more expensive and require greater expenditures. Older data on the price of bread by region seem inconclusive. And, although there shall be enthusiastic pie eating in St. Louis today, we don’t expect that will move the annual Midwest statistic.

How these charts were created: For each, the principle is the same: Search FRED for the first series with, say, “expenditures bakery by age” and take one result. From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select the next series. Repeat until you have a complete set. Use the “Format” tab to choose graph type “pie.” Bon appétit.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

The FRED Blog has discussed how, over the past 30 years, the composition of US trade among its partners has changed dramatically. China became the largest supplier of US imports in 2009 and kept that role until 2018. That was the golden age of offshoring. However, as the poet Emily Dickinson would remind us, “thus passes the worldly glory.”

The FRED graph above shows four data series produced collaboratively by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Each line represents, as of December 2023, the monthly dollar value of goods imported from the largest US trade partners.* They are, in descending order, the European Union (blue line), Mexico (green line), China (red line), and Canada (purple line).

This short essay from Luis Torres at the San Antonio Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas describes why Mexico overtook China as the second-largest supplier of imported goods into the US. A combination of new tariffs (that is, taxes on imported goods) and supply-chain disruptions reduced goods inflows from China. At the same time, Mexico and Canada boosted their manufacturing industries. In the lingo of international trade, this is the age of nearshoring—notwithstanding the European Union.

*These values exclude import duties, freight, insurance, and other charges related to bringing the merchandise into the US.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “U.S. Imports of Goods by Customs Basis from European Union.” Next, click the “Edit Graph” button and use the “Add Line” tab to add the other three series. Save some time by typing their series ID in the search box: IMPCH, IMPMX, and IMPCA.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.