Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED® Blog

Taking the pulse of the economy

Connecting the San Francisco Tech Pulse with other economic indicators

The San Francisco Tech Pulse is a measure of the overall health of the American tech sector; it’s calculated using variables such as employment and consumption in the sector and investment in technology. The graph shows the Tech Pulse as well as total U.S. employment, CPI, and GDP indexed to January 2000. These other indicators are common benchmarks of general economic health: Rising GDP, slow changes in CPI, and high employment all indicate a strong economy.

During the 2008 recession, the indicators behaved as we would expect them to during such an economic downturn: employment fell steadily, as did GDP, and CPI spiked and then fell in a spell of high inflation followed by deflation. The tech pulse also plummeted, which makes sense considering it’s the sum of the above indicators in a specific area of the economy. Yet the Pulse began to rise earlier than the general indicators. This early recovery, beginning in April 2009, could indicate that the tech sector was one of the first parts of the economy to gain strength after the recession and assisted in the overall economic recovery.

However, the overall impact of technology shouldn’t be overestimated. During the earlier recession, in 2001, the other indicators remained fairly stable compared with the Tech Pulse, which decreased substantially. This drastic fall could demonstrate the opposite of the pattern we see in 2008: that the technology sector was a major loser in that recession and it was the rest of the economy that helped maintain relative stability.

How this graph was created: Search for and select “San Francisco Tech Pulse.” From the “Edit Graph” panel and the “Add Line” tab, search for and select the other series shown here: “GDP,” “CPI,” and “Employment.” In the “Units” section, select “Index (Scale value to 100 for chosen date),” set the date as January 1, 2000, and click “Apply to all.”

Suggested by Maria Hyrc and Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: CPIAUCSL, GDPC1, PAYEMS, SFTPINDM114SFRBSF

The Great Recession’s economic sneezes, colds, and hiccups

An international comparison of unemployment rates

The Great Recession (December 2007—June 2009 in the U.S.) impacted unemployment rates very differently across countries. The graph above shows four different countries with noticeable patterns. In each country, unemployment increased during the course of the recession, with the U.S. recession marked by a gray bar. In the U.S. and Japan, the increase was from a relatively low level (below 5%); in France and Germany, however, the unemployment rate at the start of the recession was higher (above 7.5%).

In the U.S., the unemployment rate more than doubled, while in Japan the increase was relatively moderate. In the aftermath of the recession, both these countries experienced long transitions back to their pre-recession level of unemployment: Japan waited until 2013 and the U.S. until 2015. In France, the unemployment rate behaved very differently: It increased by more than 2 percentage points during the recession, but has not exhibited any sign of convergence back to its pre-recession level since then. In fact, it increased even more in 2012 and 2013. Germany presents yet another pattern: After increasing slightly during the recession, the unemployment rate continued on a downward trend that had started back in 2005. The German unemployment rate has now reached a level that’s well below its pre-recession level and is comparable to that of Japan and the U.S.

How this graph was created: In FRED, search for and select “Harmonized Unemployment Rate: Total: All Persons for United States.” From the “Edit Graph” section, select the “Add Line” tab, add “Harmonized Unemployment Rate: Total: All Persons for Japan.” Repeat for “Harmonized Unemployment Rate: Total: All Persons for France” and “Harmonized Unemployment Rate: Total: All Persons for Germany.”

Suggested by Guillaume Vandenbroucke and Heting Zhu.

View on FRED, series used in this post: LRHUTTTTDEM156S, LRHUTTTTFRM156S, LRHUTTTTJPM156S, LRHUTTTTUSQ156S

Go west, young worker! (Or maybe south)

Examining 40 years of internal U.S. labor migration

In 1876, as folks were heading west to “grow with the country,” the Transcontinental Express made a record 83-hour train trip from New York City to San Francisco. FRED’s data don’t typically go back that far, but the graph here does show how the U.S. labor force has moved around the country since 1976.

Clearly, there have been many types of positive and negative migration over the country’s history. The graph sheds light on one specific measure: the share of the U.S. labor force residing in each of the four Census regions. Note that these are proportions, so a decrease in a share may still mean an increase in that region’s labor force, as the nation’s population has increased over time. The graph shows that two regions have consistently increased their shares at the expense of the shares of the other two regions. Apparently, folks are still heading west, but also south. The West has had the largest percentage increase over the past 40 years, and the South’s increase is nearly as large: from 18.3% to 23.9% and from 31.6% to 36.9%, respectively. The shares of the labor force in the Northeast and the Midwest have decreased: from 22.9% to 17.6% and from 27.2% to 21.6%, respectively. As this centuries-long migration continues, FRED will continue to provide the historical data for you.

How this graph was created: After searching for “labor force,” look to the the left sidebar to select geography type “Census region.” Check the four series (either seasonally adjusted or not), and click on “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” menu’s “Format” tab, choose graph type “Area,” stacking “Percent,” and recession shading “Off.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: CMWRLFN, CNERLFN, CSOULFN, CWSTLFN


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