Federal Reserve Economic Data

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The full banana of the labor market

An update on the Beveridge curve

Three and a half years ago, we published a blog post about the Beveridge curve featuring the graph above, which shows how job vacancies and unemployment relate to each other. Each dot represents their values at a particular date. Beveridge’s theory is that these two measures don’t form a kinked line along the axes in a scatter plot, but rather a banana shape. This shape occurs because of delays and frictions in the job market: Vacancies and job seekers take time to intersect, as there may be mismatches in terms of job location and qualifications, for example. The graph above doesn’t show the expected full banana because the available sample period just wasn’t long enough. So, we revisit this idea by updating the graph, shown below. The banana, although not very smooth, is now complete.

How this graph was created: Search for “job openings” and add the series to the graph. From the “Edit Graph” section, add the second series by searching for and adding “civilian unemployment.” From the “Format” tab, choose “Scatter” for graph type. To connect the dots, choose a non-zero line width in the settings of the first series, which is where you can also adjust the size of the dots.

Suggested by Charley Kyd and Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: JTSJOR, UNRATE

The “youngest” and “oldest” places to live

Age differences across the U.S.

Much is said about the ethnic patchwork of the United States, but this map highlights another kind of diversity: age. FRED’s county-level data on the age distribution of the U.S. population show large variations across the country and also within states. The spread of the range is also surprising. The youngest median age, 21.4 years, is in Lexington City County, Virginia—a small county that hosts two universities. The oldest median age, 65.3 years, is in Sumter County, Florida, where over half the residents live in a giant retirement community. Florida is expected to have a high median age, but other states also have counties with high median ages, including the admittedly small counties of Mineral, Colorado (60.9 years); Highland, Virginia (59.0 years); and Hooker, Nebraska (57.9 years).

How this map was created: The original post referenced an interactive map from our now discontinued GeoFRED site. The revised post provides a replacement map from FRED’s new mapping tool. To create FRED maps, go to the data series page in question and look for the green “VIEW MAP” button at the top right of the graph. See this post for instructions to edit a FRED map. Only series with a green map button can be mapped.
Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

Where have all the workers gone?

A smaller working-age population could mean less growth

How much an economy can produce depends to a large extent on the number of persons who are old enough to work but not too old to work. One can try to make sure there are employment opportunities, but obviously you need workers. The graph shows two measures of the “working age” population for the United States, based on different age spans. The 15- to 64-year-old range covers everyone who could work up to the hypothetical retirement age of 65. The 25- to 54-year-old range excludes the youngest (likely still in some form of schooling) and the oldest (who may have already entered some form of retirement). As the overall population of the U.S. increases, these two measures ought to increase as well. But the second measure lately has not. Why?

It all boils down to the age composition of the U.S. population.

    1. The large cohort of the Baby Boomers is now almost all older than 54, so would not be included in the 25- to 54-year-old age range.
    2. Fertility has decreased, so there are fewer younger people replacing those who are retiring from the workforce.
    3. Immigration can compensate for lower fertility, as immigrants are typically of working age, but immigration doesn’t appear to be strong enough to make up the difference.

With about a 10-year delay, the number of 15- to 64-year-olds should also flatten out, with far-reaching economic implications: The U.S. economy is unlikely to be able to sustain the growth of past decades without the usual growth in its working-age population.

How this graph was created: Search for “working age population age” and the two series should be visible. If not, use the side bar options to narrow down your choices. Check the two series and click “Add to Graph.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: LFWA25TTUSA647N, LFWA64TTUSA647N


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