Federal Reserve Economic Data

Central banks around the world manage the composition and size of their balance sheets to achieve specific monetary policy goals. Economic conditions in Japan, however, have made this common tactic increasingly challenging.

The FRED graph above uses data from the World Bank’s Global Financial Development Database to show the value of assets held by the Bank of Japan (solid line) and the Federal Reserve System of the United States (dotted line). Those values are plotted as a percent of GDP to easily compare their change in relation to the overall economic activity in each country.

It’s obvious there are large differences between Japan and the US: The Fed started growing the size of its balance sheet during the global financial crisis that emerged in 2007. Japan’s central bank started a decade earlier and substantially accelerated that trend after 2012. The latest data available at the time of this writing shows that, in 2021, the value of the Bank of Japan’s assets is equivalent to 89% of their overall economic activity.

Recent research from YiLi Chien and Ashley Stewart at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis offers insights into the economic implications: Given the different types of assets held by the Japanese government and its central bank, tightening monetary policy could result in losses to the value of their stock and foreign currency assets. Thus, the potential pull-and-push between monetary and fiscal policy is particularly pronounced in Japan.

For more about this and other research, visit the publications page of the St. Louis Fed’s website, which offers an array of economic analysis and expertise provided by our staff.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Central Bank Assets to GDP for Japan.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “Central Bank Assets to GDP for United States.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

There’s no direct way to measure the market power of employees or employers, but some indicators can provide clues. One such indicator is the ratio of quits to layoffs, shown in the FRED graph above.

When employees feel they have good bargaining chips, they’re more like to quit a job, generally for a better one. In this situation, employers are less likely to lay off their workers: (i) because their best workers may already be leaving and (ii) because new workers might bargain for better conditions. So, when employees have more market power, quits should be higher and layoffs should be lower, which means this ratio should be high.

In the opposite situation (during a recession, for example), fewer employees quit because there are fewer opportunities. They feel their bargaining power is lower, and the quits-to-layoffs ratio is lower.

The recent data in the graph reveal that employees enjoyed historic levels of market power during the pandemic, but that has recently eroded to more typical levels. This observation is consistent with the increasingly successful return-to-work mandates across the economy, whereby employers have managed to impose more and more of their conditions in the workplace.

How this graph was created: In FRED, search for and select the series for “quits.” In the “Edit Graph” panel, add the second series by searching for and selecting “layoffs.” Apply formula a/b.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

In times of market turmoil, fear and uncertainty take center stage. One tool analysts use to measure this fear is the VIX, often called the “Fear Index,” published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).

The graph shows that the VIX value is about 20 on average but much higher during periods of extreme uncertainty, such as the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the financial crisis in 2008:

• In 2020, the end-of-month peak was 53.54 in March and the daily peak was 82.69 March 16.
• In 2008, the end-of-month peak was 59.89 in October and the daily peak was 80.86 November 20.

But what exactly is the VIX?

VIX, or volatility index, is a forward-looking measure of expected future volatility in the stock market. It captures these expectations using prices of “out of the money” (OTM) put and call options on the S&P 500 index. These options are particularly useful in capturing future expectations of extreme price movements. For example, OTM put options help protect against downside risk and become more expensive when investors anticipate a decline in the S&P 500. The VIX calculates a weighted average of implied volatilities across a range of strike prices for these options, providing an estimate of expected volatility over the next 30 days.

The FRED graph shows the VIX’s countercyclical pattern over time: It rises during economic downturns and falls during booms. Why? For example, in recessions, firms borrow more and thus their stock returns could become increasingly volatile. Or investors could become more risk averse and act accordingly. Also, high uncertainty during recessions can potentially further exacerbate these economic downturns.

The VIX, as a barometer of market uncertainty, reflects the collective expectations of investors about future stock market volatility. it is clearly associated with periods of economic turmoil, but it also highlights the natural cycles of confidence and caution in financial markets.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “VIX” and you’ll have the option to select the “CBOE Volatility Index: VIX” series, with series ID “VIXCLS.”

Suggested by Aakash Kalyani.