Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED graph above tracks retail sales since 1992, split into two major categories: general retail and food and drink services specifically. To protect our analysis from inflationary illusions, we’ve deflated the series by the consumer price index (CPI).

Both retail categories have increased steadily over time, with declines during the financial crisis and the COVID pandemic. With the pandemic, the data are more interesting: After both series initially dipped, food and drink services struggled to return to previous levels, while general retail shot back up to an even higher level. Both series have stagnated for a couple of years now.

The second graph (below) provides some details on the retail side and shows some stark differences.

It should be no surprise that department stores continue to struggle while mail-order retail (including online shopping) has been booming for many years, including an explosion during the pandemic. What may be less familiar is that liquor stores were one of the very few types of retail stores that did well during the pandemic. This extra business lasted for a few years but has now settled back to previous levels.

So, if sales at restaurants and bars and liquor stores are stagnating, does this mean the US population is sobering up after a drowsy pandemic? To understand this better, we use one more graph (below) to reveal the wholesale of alcoholic beverages, again adjusted for inflation. And, indeed, sales are way down after a peak during the pandemic.

How these graphs were created: From FRED, navigate to the Census Bureau’s Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services by Kind of Business release table. Select the series to display and click “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Edit Line” tab to search for “CPI” and apply the formula a/b*100. For the second graph, also change the units for each line to 100 in 2020-02-01. For the third graph, search FRED for and select “alcohol sales.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, again add CPI to the line and apply formula a/b*100.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

The FRED Blog Team remembers the introduction of computers and printers in the workplace: Printing became effortless. Now we rely almost entirely on digital files and hardly ever print paper copies anymore.

So, given that most documents remain in digital form, we’d expect to see a decline in the sale of paper. But is the anecdotal evidence reflected in the official statistics?

FRED doesn’t carry data specifically for retail sales of printing paper, but FRED does offer data for the broader category of office supply and stationery stores. Once we take price changes into account, using the CPI, we see a couple of things:

1. There was a rapid boom in office supplies and stationery in the last years of the 20th century.
2. Inflation-adjusted sales are now just one-fifth of what they were in the early 2000s.

So, yes: The data do seem consistent with the real-world evidence.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “stationery.” Click on “Edit Graph,” add series “CPI,” and apply formula a/b*100.

Suggested by George Fortier and Christian Zimmermann.

“People buy weeks in advance leading up to holidays: June kicks off vacation time when people consume more and the 4th is the largest beer consumption holiday. January is the great letdown in sales after the winter holidays, when resolutions take hold, and dry January has now become a big deal.” —Jerry M. Green Jr., CSW, Cicerone Certified Beer Server

Drinking an alcoholic beverage over the December holidays is a common tradition. A less-common, but growing tradition is to abstain the following month in dry January.

These two consumption patterns are supposed to happen regularly at the same time of the year each year, so we want to look at data that are not adjusted for seasonality. Usually, we want seasonally adjusted data to understand what’s more or less than normal compared with other times in the year. But today it’s all about the season.

The FRED graph above tracks sales of alcoholic beverages by wholesalers. It certainly looks like there’s a repeating pattern: a regular spike in December and a corresponding downturn in January. In fact, January habitually has the most-pronounced downturn, perhaps because end-of-year sales start in November, continue through December, and peter out in January. There’s also a spike around June, ahead of the July 4 holiday.

Are these regular fluctuations in alcoholic beverage sales reflected in their prices? Our second graph tracks the relevant sub-category in the consumer price index, again, without any seasonal adjustment.

If you zoom-in on the monthly values, you can see December inflation rates tend to be low and January rates tend to be high. Exactly the opposite of what’s expected from the simple demand and supply analysis that says prices should be higher when demand is higher—in December. It may be the particularly high supply during this month that leads to increased competition and, therefore, lower prices.

How these graphs were created: For the first graph, search FRED for “wholesale alcohol” and be careful to take the series that is not adjusted for seasonality. For the second graph, search for “CPI alcohol,” being careful again. Click the “Edit Graph” button and for the units select “percent change.” Note: You don’t want “percent change from preceding year,” as this would lose any seasonal effects.

Suggested by George Fortier and Christian Zimmermann.