Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED Blog has discussed how the timing of harvesting seasons results in predictable changes in the prices of fresh crops in the United States. Today, we use data on harmonized consumer prices indexes (HICPs) to compare seasonal upswings and downswings in vegetable prices in different countries across the European Union (EU).

The HICPs are directly comparable across all countries of the EU because they are calculated according to harmonized definitions. So, whether it’s called potato, potatoe, or patata, the product category for vegetables follows the European classification of individual consumption according to purpose (ECOICOP) and by goods and services.

The FRED graph above shows the HICPs for vegetables in four European countries: Poland (the blue line); Spain (the red line); Italy (the green line); and Latvia (the purple line). The data are reported by Eurostat and all four price index series have the same base period of January 2015.

Regular and large increases and decreases in consumer price indexes for vegetables in Poland and Latvia contrast with much smaller upswings and downswings in Spain and Italy. What gives? In Europe, northern countries record, on average, lower temperatures and less direct sunlight than southern countries, so their growing seasons for vegetables are relatively shorter. That makes their overall supply relatively small and drives prices up. At the same time, industrial agriculture in the southern countries supplements regional deficits in water, humidity, and nutrients, increasing their crop yields and driving prices down. In short, the climate conditions during the year have more marked seasonal effects on vegetable prices in those countries with a more constrained local supply. Those seasonal patterns are even more noticeable when we plot the percent change in the price indexes.

How the graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Vegetables for Poland.” Next, click on the “Edit Graph” button and use the “Add Line” tab to search for and add “Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Vegetables for Spain.” Repeat the previous step to add “Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Vegetables for Italy” and “Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Vegetables for Latvia.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the monthly number of people unemployed and their status at the time they become unemployed. There are four categories, each represented by a colored area in the FRED graph above:

• workers who voluntarily left their jobs (the blue area)
• workers who involuntarily lost their jobs (the red area)
• former workers who, after a period of time, decided to re-enter the labor force and look for work (the green area)
• new members of the labor force who are actively looking for work (the purple area)

The FRED graph shows that, between January 1967 and September 2023, job losers made up the largest proportion of the unemployed. That proportion is heavily influenced by business cycles, and it spiked to almost 90% during the onset of the COVID-19-induced recession. The proportion of job leavers is small, and it also changes with the phases of the business cycle. The proportion of new labor market entrants is roughly similar to that of job leavers, although generally much more stable. Lastly, re-entrants to the labor force who are unemployed are more numerous than new entrants, albeit a more-accurate comparison between those two groups should take into consideration the 1994 redesign of the current population survey.

How the graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Job Leavers as a Percent of Total Unemployed.” Next, click on the “Edit Graph” button and use the “Add Line” tab to search for and add “Job Losers as a Percent of Total Unemployed.” Repeat the previous step to add “Reentrants to Labor Force as a Percent of Total Unemployed” and “New Entrants as a Percent of Total Unemployed.” Next, click on the “Format” tab, change the graph type to “Area,” and the stacking to “Normal.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

Your credit report is a record of your credit history that includes information about your identity, outstanding balances and history of making payments, publicly available information, and inquiries made by organizations or individuals about your credit history. Your credit score is a number that reflects the information in your credit report. See this Consumer’s Guide from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve to learn more about it.

Credit scores are used by lenders when deciding whether to grant you credit, what terms you are offered, or the rate you will pay on a loan.

The FRED graph above shows data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia about the change in credit scores by three groups of credit card holders: those with the lowest 10% of credit scores (the blue line); those with the lowest 25% of credit scores (the red line); and those with median, or middle-of-range, credit scores (the green line). Personal credit scores may change from quarter to quarter, so individual credit card holders could potentially move between groupings. The data were transformed into a custom index with a value of 100 in the third quarter of 2012, the first available observation, to highlight a striking feature of their recent changes.

During the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the credit scores of many credit card holders increased noticeably. This jump in scores was pretty much irrespective of how high or low those scores were to begin with. More flexible repayment terms on existing debts, reduced spending during the periods of lockdown and social distancing, and substantial income subsidies provided by the government improved the credit scores of many people. However, all those factors boosting personal finances were temporary.

Recent research from Juan M. Sánchez and Masataka Mori at the St Louis Fed finds some evidence that many individuals who experienced a fast improvement in credit scores during the COVID-19 pandemic are not as financially stable as those who improved their credit scores after the 2007-2009 recession, also known as the Great Recession. As a consequence, people who were likely to be financially distressed prior to 2020 and saw their credit scores improve during the pandemic also make up a significant proportion of credit card holders recently missing multiple payments on their existing credit card balances. In short: Their credit scores may have improved, but their long-term underlying ability to repay a loan in time did not.

For more about this and other research, visit the website of the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, which offers an array of economic analysis and expertise provided by our staff.

How this graph was created: In FRED, search for “Large Bank Consumer Credit Card Balances: Current Credit Score: 10th Percentile.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “Large Bank Consumer Credit Card Balances: Current Credit Score: 25th Percentile.” Repeat the last step to add the third series, “Large Bank Consumer Credit Card Balances: Current Credit Score: 50th Percentile.” Next, select the “Edit Line 1” tab to customize the units by selecting “Index (Scale value to 100 for chosen date)” and enter “2012-07-01” in the date box. Click on “Copy to all” to apply the unit transformation to all the series.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.