Federal Reserve Economic Data

The US economy in general has gone on a rollercoaster ride since the onset of the pandemic. Unemployment is one specific bumpy example: In April 2020, the unemployment rate was higher than it had ever been, but by December 2022 it was close to a record low.

We could ask many related questions here, but today we look at the unemployment rates across US states during this extreme episode.

The FRED map above shows the unemployment rate for each state in December 2022, the last date available at the time of this writing. We see quite a bit of variation, from 2.2% in Utah to 5.2% in neighboring Nevada. To look for big patterns, we can use the squinting-eye technique (patent pending!) to see the general distribution of color. In this map, the unemployment rate is higher (darker) in the Rust Belt and the West and lower (lighter) in the central and Mountain areas.

The second map also shows the unemployment rate for each state, but back in April 2020, when it was much higher everywhere. In fact, the lowest rate in April 2020 (Wyoming, 5.4%) was higher than the highest rate in December 2022 (Nevada, 5.2% ). By the way, in April 2020, the highest rate is again in Nevada (28.5%).

And what does the squinting-eye technique show us here? Again, the unemployment rate is higher (darker) in the Rust Belt and the West and lower (lighter) in the central and Mountain areas. In other words, at least in this particular economic episode, the whole nation seems to have gone up and down while maintaining its broad state-to-state differences.

How these maps were created: Search FRED for the unemployment rate. Click on any state rate, then click on “View Map.” To have the color span the unemployment rates over the two very distinct time periods, change the date to 2020-04-01, click on “Edit Map,” change the number of color groups to four, write down the interval values, and repeat for 2022-12-01. Now change the number of color groups to eight and select data grouped by “user defined method.” Enter all eight interval values. You have the first map. Change the date to 2020-04-01 and you have the second map.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

We recently discussed Information industry jobs data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: That post showed that layoffs in Information were elevated relative to layoffs for non-farm employment overall. Today we examine job postings data from Indeed.com to answer a related question: How have the help wanted ads in the US tech industry compared with the rest of the labor market?

The FRED graph above taps into a recently expanded dataset from Indeed.com to compare changes in the level of job postings for the tech industry with changes in the level for all job postings. The black dashed line shows the indexed trend of all job postings; the red line shows the trend of postings in information technology operations and helpdesk positions; and the blue line shows the trend in software development job postings. These daily data are reported as an index with a value of 100 on February 1, 2020, and represent changes in the level of postings relative to that date.

The graph shows that the overall level of job postings declined during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, bouncing back to pre-pandemic levels 12 months later. Soon after, and while help wanted ads for IT operations and helpdesk staffing remained depressed, the level of job postings in software development started to quickly outpace the rising national trend.

At their peak in late February 2022, help wanted ads for designing computer applications or programs more than doubled their February 2020 level. In contrast, IT operations and helpdesk staffing roughly kept up with the national trend. Over the past year, the decline in software development job postings has been swift and, again, has outpaced the gradual decline in overall job postings.

Finally, other datasets from the same source show similar ups and downs in other countries around the world (see here and here). So, although the data from Indeed.com is not as comprehensive as the BLS data, they suggest a large-scale cycle in tech industry employment is over.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in the United States.” Next, click the “Edit Graph” button, select “Add Line,” and search for “IT Operations and Helpdesk Job Postings on Indeed in the United States.” Repeat the last step to add “Job Postings on Indeed in the United States.” Use the “Format” tab to change the lines style and color.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

The consumer price index (CPI) is calculated by looking at the cost of a market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by an average urban consumer. During the past two years, overall CPI inflation has increased and decreased, in part because of supply and demand shocks to the prices of individual goods and services, such as eggs and shelter. These specific shocks make it difficult to identify trends in broad inflation. But alternative price indexes can help measure the “core” of inflation.

The FRED graph above shows the all-items CPI inflation rate (dashed red line), reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, plus two special aggregations of consumer prices:

• The “all items less food and energy” CPI inflation (green line) is also reported by the BLS; it excludes the prices of food and energy, two components of the all-items CPI that are frequently the most volatile.
• The “sticky price” CPI inflation (blue line) is reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which sorts the components of the all-items CPI and categorizes them as either “flexible” or “sticky” (slow to change).

Between January 2013 and January 2023, both of these special aggregations of consumer prices have signaled very similar core inflation rates; but their lockstep movement broke down during the COVID-19-induced recession in 2020. Since then, “all items less food and energy” CPI inflation has been noticeably more volatile than “sticky price” CPI inflation. This dynamic suggests a broader range of price categories has experienced notable and unexpected changes.

Stick to the FRED Blog and learn more about core inflation. A post on the topic was recently referenced in the Federal Register, the daily journal of the United States government, as part of a proposed rule.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “Sticky Price Consumer Price Index.” Next, click the “Edit Graph” button, select the “Add Line,” and search for “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average.” Next, select the “Line 2” tab and use the “Units” dropdown menu to select “Percent Change from Year Ago.” Repeat the “Add Line” step to add the “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average” series to the graph and calculate their year-over-year percent growth rate.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.