Federal Reserve Economic Data

On December 8, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimates of real GDP by county and metropolitan statistical area (MSA) for 2021. These data provide a new glimpse into how different regions across the U.S. have performed since the COVID-19-induced recession in 2020.

The map of the United States above shows MSAs (with available data) in green if they expanded and in red if they contracted between 2020 and 2021. The vast majority (95%) of MSAs experienced economic growth. The median growth rate among the MSAs was 5.1%; however, the range of growth rates may surprise you. Elkhart-Goshen, IN, grew the fastest, with a staggering 25.34% increase since 2020. Wheeling, WV-OH, contracted the most, with a decline of –6.7%.

It can be helpful to contextualize these numbers with previous years. The graphs below show the percent change for 2020—that is, the change from 2019 to 2020.

The 2020 map depicts clearly different economic conditions. A vast majority (79.3%) of MSAs had contracted in 2020. The median growth rate was –2.1%. Of the 20.7% of MSAs that expanded, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA, grew the most, at 4.6%. Lake Charles, LA, contracted the most at –19.8%.

While the 2020 and 2021 data show two extremes of economic conditions, the 2019 data show a more “normal” economy. Approximately 80.7% of MSAs expanded, with a median growth rate of 1.8%. Midland, TX, grew the most, at 23.4%, similar to growth rates in 2021. Billings, MT, contracted the most at –5.3%.

Regardless of the year, it’s clear that there are large differences in economic conditions among MSAs. These differences can stem from variation in industry composition, among other factors. And this variation across the country is important to keep in mind when looking at national averages of economic data.

How these maps were created: Search FRED for “Total Real Gross Domestic Product for St. Louis, MO-IL (MSA)” or the series RGMP41180. Click on the green “View Map” button, then click on the “Edit Map” button to change the units and colors. Change units to “Percent Change from Year Ago.” Change “Number of color groups” to 2. Change “Data grouped by” to “User Defined Method.” Change the first value to 0 and the second value to 30. To change the colors, click on the color next to the less-than-or-equal sign. Finally, click “Apply Intervals.” To look at different years with the same settings, change the date in the upper right hand “Date” box.

Suggested by Charles Gascon and Cassie Marks.

As a part of the federal response to the COVID-19 pandemic, then-President Trump issued an executive order instituting a freeze on all new visas and preventing new immigrants from entering the United States. In the early part of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in April and May of 2020, the unemployment rate in the United States was extremely high. The executive order, issued in April 2020, was designed to prevent immigrants from taking jobs from native-born workers.

The FRED graph above shows the relative change in the levels of foreign-born employment and native-born employment. Both series are indexed to January 2020, right before the pandemic seriously affected the U.S. labor market. Both series sharply dropped in April 2020 before slowly increasing to their pre-pandemic levels.

The foreign-born employment index dropped more relative to its January 2020 level and was faster to recover. Foreign-born employment returned to its January 2020 level in October 2021, while native-born employment did not recover until March 2022. Given the tightness of the U.S. labor market, the increase in foreign-born employment could help relieve some of the pressure in the economy. While native employment has continued at its pre-pandemic level  despite a tight labor market, foreign-born employment has continued to rise and as of November 2022 is 5% over its pre-pandemic level.

How this graph was created: Search for “Foreign Born” in FRED and select “Employment Level – Foreign Born.” Click the orange “Edit Graph” button on the right: From the “Add Line” tab, type “Native Born” in the search bar, select “Employment Level – Native Born,” and click “Add data series.” From the “Edit Line 2” tab, change the units to “Index (Scale value to 100 for chosen date)” and make the date that equals 100 “2020-01-01.” Then select “Copy to all” to copy these units to all lines. Finally, change the beginning date of the graph to 2018-01-01.

Suggested by Maggie Isaacson and Hannah Rubinton.

The fourth quarter of the year, which includes the Christmas shopping season, is the busiest for retailers. Hark! As expected, it’s also the time of the year when credit card holders make the most intensive use of their access to credit.

The FRED graph above tracks credit card use from a dataset provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The utilization rate shown in the graph is the percent of the total available credit line that a borrower is using at the end of a billing cycle. The data are available since the third quarter of 2012 and aren’t seasonally adjusted. The telltale see-saw pattern in the plotted data reveals the timing of the most-intensive use of credit cards: the fourth quarter of the year.

This seasonal pattern exists across the three different groups of credit card holders reported in the data release:

• Green: This typical group, in the 50th percentile, uses an average of about 9% of their available credit limit.
• Red: This more-intensive group, in the top 25th percentile, uses an average of 56% of their available credit limit.
• Blue: This most-intensive group, in the top 10th percentile, nearly max out their available credit limit, at an average of 93%.

One more thing: There was a marked decline in credit card utilization rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. A closer look at the data in FRED shows credit card holders aren’t yet racking up their credit card debt with the same intensity as they did prior to 2020. The spike in personal saving during the pandemic described in this FRED Blog post could explain this decreased reliance on charging.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “Large Bank Consumer Credit Card Balances: Utilization: Active Accounts Only: 50th Percentile.” Click the “Edit Graph” button and use the “Add Line” tab to add the other two series.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.