Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED Blog is proud to have reached the milestone of 900 blog posts. As with every centennial, we present a graph that’s related to the number. Although 900 was challenging, FRED always delivers.

Today’s topic is gasoline, and the data set comes from a survey of 900 retailers. The values reflect the average prices of “regular” gasoline, with octane levels of 85 to 88. The FRED graph above offers some not-so-surprising observations: Gas prices fluctuate dramatically, and gas prices have increased substantially since the 1990s, peaking in mid 2022.

Adjusting for consumer price inflation, as we do in our second graph, shows the same variability but reveals something new: After the increase in the early 2000s, the real gas price has not been trending up and the 2022 peak in the first graph is surpassed on several occasions. But, of course, what really matters is how gas prices relate to incomes, which we show in our third graph. There, we see that current gas prices (measured as the number of minutes of work it takes to purchase a gallon of gasoline) are not that much higher than in the 1990s.

How these graphs were created: The first graph can easily be found by searching FRED for “gasoline price.” For the second, click on “Edit Graph,” in the “Add Line” tab search for CPI, and then apply formula a/b*100. For the third, replace the CPI by the average hourly wage (selecting the series for non-supervisory workers, which goes back further than other series) and then apply formula a/b*60.

Suggested by Yvetta Fortova and Christian Zimmermann.

What do conditions look like for business owners? It’s a complicated question. On the pessimistic side, inflation remains elevated and supply chains are still working their way back to pre-pandemic levels (though both have seen improvement in recent months). Labor markets are historically tight, and interest rate increases over the previous year have raised borrowing costs. Add that to broader uncertainty about the near-term economic outlook, and it’s easy to see why the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index has been below its 49-year average for 17 consecutive months.

Yet more people than ever are starting businesses in this environment, according to the Census Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics. Tracked since 2006, these data show the number of applications for an Employer Identification Number (EIN), which is a unique federal tax identifier linked to wage-paying businesses. (Sole proprietorships with no employees often don’t have an EIN.) In this dataset, the Census Bureau categorizes some business applications as “high propensity,” which have a high rate of leading to a business with a payroll. Manufacturing, retail, healthcare, and food service all fall under this category.

Applications for all businesses rose from a seasonally adjusted average of 200k per month to just over 300k per month during the 2010s. For the past two years, they’ve held steady at over 400k per month. High-propensity applications have seen a similar increase: After staying below 100k per month for the 2010s, they’ve been above 130k for the past two years.

It’s likely these increases reflect shifting economic conditions in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and additional research could help us better understand how and why they’re occurring. For now, it’s enough to know that some business owners feel that conditions are tough, while others are taking this moment to launch new businesses.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “Business Applications: Total for all NAICS.” Use the “Add Line” option to and search for and select “High-Propensity Business Applications: Total for all NAICS.”

Suggested by Nathan Jefferson.

Last week’s FRED Blog post looked at the rising mortgage burden for US households: It discussed how recent increases in interest rates and outstanding mortgage loan balances offset growth in disposable income. A larger financial burden of paying back new mortgage loans is likely to decrease housing demand and, other things being equal, lower housing prices.

The FRED graph above shows the percent change from a year ago in three different, yet related, home price indexes. We highlight the past decade of available data because, for almost all that time, the monthly S&P/Case-Shiller US national home price index (the red line) grew year over year. Only in April 2023 did home prices decrease relative to the previous year. However, relative to the previous month, the price index increased. You can see for yourself in this FRED graph of index levels and month-over-moth percent growth rates.

So, are home prices decreasing? The answer depends on whether you choose a monthly or an annual base for calculating their growth. Keep in mind that the index recorded its all-time high in June 2022 and that the data are not seasonally adjusted. It is difficult to eyeball data trends under those conditions.

The two alternative measures of home prices shown in the FRED graph above may help you add some context to the data. Both the quarterly all-transactions house price index (the green line), produced by the US Federal Housing Finance Agency, and the monthly Zillow home value index for all homes (the blue line), produced by Zillow.com, show a steady slowdown in their year-over-year growth. However, at the time of this writing, neither marks a decrease in home prices from a year ago.

Bookmark this FRED graph and visit it next month to be the first one to know about home price growth when the graph updates with the latest available data.

Learn more about… housing price trends and how these price indexes are constructed.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for All Homes Including Single-Family Residences, Condos, and CO-OPs in the United States of America.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index” and “All-Transactions House Price Index for the United States.” Last, select “Line 1” and change the units to “Percent change from year ago.” Click on “Copy to all” to apply the change to the other two series.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.