Federal Reserve Economic Data

The national economic accounts are the foundation for calculating, among other things, US gross domestic product. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis, which collects and releases GDP data, periodically updates these national economic accounts. On September 28, the BEA released its 2023 comprehensive (or benchmark) update.

Now, FRED has these new data. So, today we turn to Archival FRED (ALFRED) to compare these new data with the old data. The ALFRED graph above shows two different vintages of annual real GDP data between 2017 and 2022. The vintage dates included in the series names are associated with the dates of the comprehensive updates: The red bars represent data from the 2023 update, the latest available at the time of this writing; and the blue bars represent data from the previous comprehensive update, released in 2018.

There are relatively small differences in the annual growth rates of inflation-adjusted GDP between data vintages because comprehensive updates involve changes in the underlying methodology used to measure economic activity. As outlined in this BEA briefing, the latest update also synced the schedule for releasing national GDP and related industry and state statistics within the same timeframe. Lastly, the reference year for inflation adjustment and price measures has been updated to 2017 from 2012.

Additional information about the scope and impact of the 2023 comprehensive updates to the national, industry, and state economic accounts can be found here.

How this graph was created: Search ALFRED for “Real Gross Domestic Product.” By default, ALFRED shows a graph with two sets of bars: the most recent vintage and the prior vintage. Add additional vintages by using the “Add Line” tab and select the date of the desired vintage from the “or select a vintage” dropdown menu. Change the start date and the end date above the graph to customize the number of data points shown.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

FRED recently added two new personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data series from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis: one excluding the energy and housing categories from the all-items PCE price index and a second one excluding the food, energy, and housing categories. These series are timely additions to FRED’s substantial repository of measures of trend inflation.

The FRED graph above shows these two new PCE price index series from the BEA (blue and red lines), along with the all-items price index (green line). The data are plotted as inflation rates, or percent changes from a year ago.

Between April 2020 (the end of the COVID-19-induced recession) and roughly the last quarter of 2021, the three measures of PCE inflation moved broadly in sync. However, during the better part of 2022, food, energy, and housing prices changed at a different pace from the remaining PCE price categories. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a large shock to international energy and food markets, but housing markets are local. So, what happened to those prices?

In short, and paraphrasing Jerome Powell, because rental leases are renewed annually or even less frequently, housing price inflation tends to lag other prices after speedups or slowdowns in overall inflation. This apparent lack of co-movement between the all-items PCE inflation and the other two measures of personal consumption expenditure prices was due to the timing of new housing data, particularly rental prices. This phenomenon has also been visible during other time periods when inflation changed its direction of growth, particularly during the 2007-2009 recession: See this FRED graph with the three PCE series plotted since 1960.

How this graph was created: In FRED, search for and select “Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services Excluding Energy and Housing (Chain-Type Price Index).” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search and select “Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food, Energy, and Housing (Chain-Type Price Index).” Repeat the last step to add “Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index.” Lastly, use the “Edit Lines” tab to change the units into “Percent Change from Year Ago” and click on the “Copy to all” button to apply the change to the other two series in the graph.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

US gasoline prices rose sharply after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the European Union and the United States imposed economic sanctions. The attention paid to these economic events was certainly warranted: In June 2022, the producer price index (PPI) for gasoline had jumped 85% above what it was a year earlier.

Oil prices were clearly affected, but how do those changes compare with price changes for other commodities? FRED has US price data for a variety of commodities, and the FRED graph above plots the PPI for natural gas, diesel fuel, crude petroleum, gasoline, farm products, and metal products from January 2020 to the latest available data at the time of this writing.

Metal and farm products

The orange and light blue lines in the graph show metal and farm product prices, respectively: These prices barely changed compared with the others, which is quite remarkable for commodities. Keep in mind that these are prices in the United States, and prices closer to the conflict did change more.

Energy commodities

On the other hand, energy markets have typically been more volatile. Before February 2022, diesel, gasoline, oil, and natural gas prices followed similar trends. The price of diesel and gas (both of which are connected to the price of crude oil) immediately increased after Russia invaded Ukraine. However, their paths diverged greatly thereafter. Gas and diesel both peaked in June 2022, but diesel’s PPI was about 109% more than in June 2021 compared with 85% for gasoline. Diesel prices rose higher because diesel fuel is scarcer worldwide: There simply weren’t enough refineries to meet diesel demand, especially after the US and other countries stopped purchasing energy exports from Russia.

These price indices have decreased considerably since then, showing that markets have been able to absorb the upheaval in early 2022.

How this graph was created: In FRED, search for and select “Producer Price Index by Commodity: Fuels and Related Products and Power: Natural Gas, Index 1982=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted.” From the “Edit Graph” menu, click the “Add Line” tab: Search for the producer price index of other commodities, and click “Add data series.” Once all lines have been added, change units to 100 in 2022-02-01 and apply to all. Then, add a user-defined line, with start and end dates on 2022-02-01 with values that go from maximum to minimum value in the graph. Finally, go to the “Format” tab and turn the vertical line black.

Suggested by Hoang Le and Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria.