Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED Blog has discussed the Beveridge curve, which illustrates the relationship between unemployment and job openings. In short, when the rate of unemployment is high, the rate of job openings is low. And vice versa. A scatter plot showing these paired data points has a very distinctive negatively sloped shape. Today we tap into new research from the St. Louis Fed to tell the story behind the recent numbers shaping the Beveridge curve.

The FRED graph above shows a scatter plot of monthly values of the unemployment and job openings rates, as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Between December 2000 and October 2024, the Beveridge curve is more or less shaped like a banana, but with a long tendril during the years of the COVID-19 pandemic. A closer inspection of post-pandemic labor market data, however, shows a steady decline in the rate of job openings and only a modest increase in the rate of unemployment.

Paulina Restrepo-Echevarria and her coauthor studied why the Beveridge curve may have lost some of its shape and found that a growing proportion of job vacancies are filled by workers who are employed by other firms. Hiring currently employed workers is known as “poaching.” Since 2015, the fraction of workers poached from other firms to fill vacancies has risen significantly and has been as high as 80% of advertised job openings. The proportion of unemployed workers who have been making their way into existing jobs has gradually declined. Thus, the Beveridge curve is a bit out of shape.

For more about this and other research, visit the publications page of the St. Louis Fed’s website, which offers an array of economic analysis and expertise provided by our staff.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Job Openings: Total Nonfarm.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “Unemployment Rate.” Next, use the “Format” tab to select “Graph type: Scatter” from the drop-down menu.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

The FRED Blog has tapped into US Bureau of Economic Analysis data before to discuss the small regional differences in the price of goods and the much larger regional differences in the price of housing. Today, we tap into US Bureau of Labor Statistics data to compare differences in medical care consumer prices across urban areas.

The FRED graph above shows the annual inflation rate, calculated as the percent growth rate from the previous year, in medical care service prices recorded in eight core-based statistical areas (CBSAs). These geographies are urban clusters with high degrees of social and economic integration.*

Medical care prices vary quite a bit from year to year and across regions. Consider, for example, the year 2018 and the urban areas of Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO, and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL. The former recorded 6% annual inflation and the latter 4% annual deflation.

Does this price variability indicate there are different constraints to the demand and supply of medical care across regions? Maybe. Perhaps medical services aren’t highly mobile and local changes to the quantity and use of those services result in large price changes. On the other hand, research by James Choy at the BEA reports estimates of regional price levels for health-related goods and services that are stable across years and that vary less across regions than existing estimates obtained using CPI data. Answering this question more precisely requires more research.

* To look for data on other CBSAs, navigate FRED to Consumer Price Index by Expenditure Category > CPI for Metropolitan Areas and search the alphabetical list of geographies.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Medical care in Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH (CBSA).” Click “Edit Graph” and select the “Add Line” tab to search for “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Medical care in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX.” Don’t forget to click “Add data series.” Repeat this step to add the other six data series shown in the graph. Use the “Edit Lines” tab to select any of the lines shown in the graph. Use the “Units” dropdown menu to select “Percent Change from Year Ago” and click on “Copy to all.” Last, use the “Format” tab to change the “Graph type” to “Bar.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

The FRED Blog has discussed how consuming news over the internet has reduced employment in the print media industry. Today we explore a related topic: how firms are gradually shifting from print media to digital platforms to advertise their products.

The FRED graph above shows data from the US Census Bureau on the dollar value of revenue collected by newspapers from selling two types of advertisements: classified (the blue area) and all other (the green area). The data, between 2013 and 2021, are shown as stacked areas to easily observe their change over that period: Classified ads have generally amounted to around 20% of the total advertising revenue for newspapers and their dollar value has shrunk by almost half. Revenue from other types of advertisements, amounting to the remaining 80% of total advertising revenue, has shrunk by a third. These trends seem to align with the declining economic footprint of newspapers. So, where are the missing advertising dollars?

Consumers are shifting their eyes from print media to digital devices, and advertisements are following them there. Recent research from Ricardo Marto and Hoang Le at the St. Louis Fed has examined the economic implications of the rise in digital advertising.

Their work suggests that recent valuations of the digital advertising market might be as large as 1.1% of gross domestic product—the broadest measure of annual US economic activity. They also argue that digital advertising allows for more accurate tailoring of ads to consumers, giving firms more market power to set prices for the products they sell.

For more about this and other research, visit the publications page of the St. Louis Fed’s website, which offers an array of economic analysis and expertise provided by our staff.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Breakdown of Revenue by Advertising Type: Newspapers Advertising Space – Classified Advertising for Newspaper Publishers, All Establishments, Employer Firms.” Click on the “Edit Graph” button, select the “Add Line” tab, and search for “Breakdown of Revenue by Advertising Type: Newspapers Advertising Space – All Other Advertising for Newspaper Publishers, All Establishments, Employer Firms.” Don’t forget to click “Add data series.” Last, use the “Format” tab to select “Graph type: Area” and “Stacking: Normal.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.