Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED® Blog

The seasonal peak in postal employment

The end-of-year holidays create the busiest business season for both brick-and-mortar and online retailers. That includes a lot of doorstep package deliveries. When you add Christmas cards and family newsletters to the month of December, you get peak volume for postal traffic.

How, you may ask, can those proverbial couriers swiftly complete their appointed rounds despite the seasonal snow, rain, (scant) heat, (early dusk) gloom, and (shall we add) the highest level of year-round e-commerce activity? The FRED Blog has the answer: By adding more couriers to their ranks during the holidays.

The FRED graph above shows the monthly number of persons employed by the U.S. Postal Service over the past 10 years. The solid green line shows the employment figures recorded every month, and the dashed red line shows the same figures after adjusting them for the predictable and periodic increases and decreases in employment. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports both sets of data, facilitating a more accurate analysis of monthly employment figures throughout the year.

As we wrap up 2022, we can look to the past 10 December peaks in the green line to predict this year’s maximum postal worker employment. Visit us at the FRED Blog a week from today as we start a new year of interesting data highlights.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “All Employees, U.S. Postal Service.” There are two series with that name, but notice the units: One reports “seasonally adjusted” and the other reports “not seasonally adjusted” in thousands of persons. Start with the former. Next, click the “Edit Graph” button and use the “Add Line” tab to add the latter.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

Using FRED maps to look at regional GDP

On December 8, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimates of real GDP by county and metropolitan statistical area (MSA) for 2021. These data provide a new glimpse into how different regions across the U.S. have performed since the COVID-19-induced recession in 2020.

The map of the United States above shows MSAs (with available data) in green if they expanded and in red if they contracted between 2020 and 2021. The vast majority (95%) of MSAs experienced economic growth. The median growth rate among the MSAs was 5.1%; however, the range of growth rates may surprise you. Elkhart-Goshen, IN, grew the fastest, with a staggering 25.34% increase since 2020. Wheeling, WV-OH, contracted the most, with a decline of –6.7%.

It can be helpful to contextualize these numbers with previous years. The graphs below show the percent change for 2020—that is, the change from 2019 to 2020.

The 2020 map depicts clearly different economic conditions. A vast majority (79.3%) of MSAs had contracted in 2020. The median growth rate was –2.1%. Of the 20.7% of MSAs that expanded, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA, grew the most, at 4.6%. Lake Charles, LA, contracted the most at –19.8%.

While the 2020 and 2021 data show two extremes of economic conditions, the 2019 data show a more “normal” economy. Approximately 80.7% of MSAs expanded, with a median growth rate of 1.8%. Midland, TX, grew the most, at 23.4%, similar to growth rates in 2021. Billings, MT, contracted the most at –5.3%.

Regardless of the year, it’s clear that there are large differences in economic conditions among MSAs. These differences can stem from variation in industry composition, among other factors. And this variation across the country is important to keep in mind when looking at national averages of economic data.

How these maps were created: Search FRED for “Total Real Gross Domestic Product for St. Louis, MO-IL (MSA)” or the series RGMP41180. Click on the green “View Map” button, then click on the “Edit Map” button to change the units and colors. Change units to “Percent Change from Year Ago.” Change “Number of color groups” to 2. Change “Data grouped by” to “User Defined Method.” Change the first value to 0 and the second value to 30. To change the colors, click on the color next to the less-than-or-equal sign. Finally, click “Apply Intervals.” To look at different years with the same settings, change the date in the upper right hand “Date” box.

Suggested by Charles Gascon and Cassie Marks.

Native and immigrant employment during the pandemic

As a part of the federal response to the COVID-19 pandemic, then-President Trump issued an executive order instituting a freeze on all new visas and preventing new immigrants from entering the United States. In the early part of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in April and May of 2020, the unemployment rate in the United States was extremely high. The executive order, issued in April 2020, was designed to prevent immigrants from taking jobs from native-born workers.

The FRED graph above shows the relative change in the levels of foreign-born employment and native-born employment. Both series are indexed to January 2020, right before the pandemic seriously affected the U.S. labor market. Both series sharply dropped in April 2020 before slowly increasing to their pre-pandemic levels.

The foreign-born employment index dropped more relative to its January 2020 level and was faster to recover. Foreign-born employment returned to its January 2020 level in October 2021, while native-born employment did not recover until March 2022. Given the tightness of the U.S. labor market, the increase in foreign-born employment could help relieve some of the pressure in the economy. While native employment has continued at its pre-pandemic level  despite a tight labor market, foreign-born employment has continued to rise and as of November 2022 is 5% over its pre-pandemic level.

How this graph was created: Search for “Foreign Born” in FRED and select “Employment Level – Foreign Born.” Click the orange “Edit Graph” button on the right: From the “Add Line” tab, type “Native Born” in the search bar, select “Employment Level – Native Born,” and click “Add data series.” From the “Edit Line 2” tab, change the units to “Index (Scale value to 100 for chosen date)” and make the date that equals 100 “2020-01-01.” Then select “Copy to all” to copy these units to all lines. Finally, change the beginning date of the graph to 2018-01-01.

Suggested by Maggie Isaacson and Hannah Rubinton.



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