Federal Reserve Economic Data

The FRED® Blog

Which wages are really increasing?

The evolution of wages by sector

Wages are in the news, so we take the opportunity to see how they’ve evolved recently. In the graph above, wages are separated into three large categories: the goods-producing sector, the service-providing sector, and government. Two notions are clear: Wages are generally trending upward, which should come as no surprise because they haven’t been adjusted for inflation. And the most growth is in the service sector and the least is in government.

The graph below adjusts for inflation using the consumer price index (CPI) and looks at the year-to-year change for all three series. This inflation adjustment makes it clear that wages are not always increasing in real terms. In fact, service sector real wages increase more frequently than government real wages, which is how the gap in the first graph can be explained. Of course, this analysis is at a very high level; our Employment Cost Index release tables offer much more detail.

How these graphs were created: From the Employment Cost Index release tables, select Table 2, then check the series you want, and click “Add to Graph.” For the second graph, click on “Edit Graph” and do the following for each line: add series “CPI,” apply formula a/b, and select units “Percent change from year ago.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: CIS202G000000000I, CIS202S000000000I, CPIAUCSL, ECIGVTWAG

The rise of the service economy

One constant throughout economic history is that, as an economy develops, its service sector keeps growing. The graph shows that this is certainly true for the United States. It divides nonfarm payrolls into three categories: government (at all levels), goods-producing industries (mining, manufacturing, construction…), and service-providing industries. Although government is roughly constant, services have far surpassed goods.

Is this bad? Of course not. The standard of living has clearly improved since 1939, when the graph starts. Indeed, goods can now be produced with fewer people—thanks to technological progress and automation…and perhaps also automatization. This transformation allows the economy to direct more of the labor force to enhancing our lives in other ways, such as tourism and entertainment, advanced health care, and anything related to the Internet, all of which are services that were either nonexistent or luxuries in 1939.

How this graph was created: Using the nonfarm payrolls by industry sector release table from the establishment survey, check the series and click “Add to Graph.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, open the “Format” tab and select graph type “Area” and “Stacked.”

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: CES0800000001, USGOOD, USGOVT

What’s up (or down) with the yield curve?

Analyzing the new most-popular series in FRED

For as long as we can remember, the most popular series in FRED has been the consumer price index (CPI). Well, not anymore. Recently, the series describing the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury constant maturity rates became the most popular. Why this sudden interest? It has to do with the concept of the yield curve: Under normal circumstances, long-term interest rates are higher than short-term interest rates (when annualized), principally because the long term is usually perceived as riskier and so long-term debt demands a higher return. Again, normally, if you plot the interest rates at different maturities, you get an upward-sloping (yield) curve. But if for some reason the short term becomes unusually risky, the curve (or portions of it) may become downward sloping. And why is that important? The graph makes it clear that this kind of yield curve inversion has been associated with impending recessions. (See the gray vertical bars.) As the yield curve gets close to such a situation, there’s going to be a lot of interest in it.

How this graph was created: From the FRED homepage, open the tab “Popular Series,” click on the first one (at the time of this writing, anyway), and expand the sample to the maximum.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.

View on FRED, series used in this post: T10Y2Y


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