Federal Reserve Economic Data

The Russian Federation is the largest country on earth by area, but it is smaller than the European Union both economically and demographically. Since 2013, the EU has included 27 member countries. In 1989, typically seen as the end of the Cold War, it included 11 member countries. But neither the discussion below nor the data above depend critically on the date you choose to start comparing Russia and the EU.

GDP

The blue line shows the ratio (expressed in percentages) of Russia’s GDP to the EU’s GDP. From 1989 through 2020, Russian GDP never exceeded 15% of the EU’s. The peak occurred in 2012. Since 2013, Russian GDP has grown more slowly than the EU’s—hence, its decreasing relative size.

To gauge the importance of this difference, consider the following thought experiment: Suppose the EU spends 4% of its GDP on defense (4% of GDP is approximately how much the U.S. spends on defense). Because Russian GDP was approximately 10% of EU GDP in 2020, Russia would have to spend 40% of its GDP on defense to simply match EU spending. Obviously, 4% is just an example, but it illustrates the principle that Russia must spend 10 times more of its GDP to match the EU.

Population

The red line shows that Russia’s population has decreased from about 35.2% to 32.2% of the EU’s population from 1989 to 2020.

Comment

Combined together, the GDP ratio and the population ratio imply that the Russian Federation’s GDP per capita is also smaller than the European Union’s: about two-third smaller in 2020. This post doesn’t attempt to answer the difficult question of whether the outcome of a conflict is determined by total GDP or GDP per capita. Certainly, both variables are likely to play a role, among others. But in its current confrontation with the European Union, the Russian Federation is likely to be at a disadvantage on these two fronts.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “GDP Russia.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, search for “GDP European Union” and apply formula a/b*100. Open the tab “new line” and repeat with population.

Suggested by Guillaume Vandenbroucke.

The FRED Blog has discussed how the COVID-19 pandemic changed the sale volumes of different products, from groceries and alcohol to men’s clothing, sporting goods, pharmacies and drug stores. The social distancing required to manage the pandemic also impacted how people shopped, boosting online sales. Today, we compare nonstore and e-commerce retail sales to total sales to see if the boost to online sales was permanent or temporary.

The FRED graph above shows data from the U.S. Census about where consumers do their shopping. The blue line compares monthly nonstore retail sales (i.e., home delivery, TV or print catalog sales, and electronic shopping) with all other non-food, non-motor-vehicle retail sales. The red line compares quarterly retail sales over the internet with total retail sales. All data series are seasonally adjusted and presented as percent rates, or proportions.

The parallel rising trends of these data indicate that shopping over the internet and away from stores is gradually growing in popularity. The spike in distance shopping during the early months of the pandemic is very noticeable. However, the gradual decline afterward strongly suggests nonstore and e-commerce retail sales are back to trend and that the pandemic-related boost was temporary.

Although FRED doesn’t currently have any data to compare brick-and-mortar window shopping to internet browser window shopping, perusing “the shelves” in IDEAS yields multiple research papers on the topic. We invite you to try these on for size.

How this graph was created: Search for and select “Advance Retail Sales: Nonstore Retailers.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for “Advance Retail Sales: Nonstore Retailers.” Remember to click “Add data series.” Next, use the “Edit Lines” tab to customize the data in line 2 by searching for and selecting: “Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services, Excluding Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers,” “Advance Retail Sales: Food Services and Drinking Places,” and “Advance Retail Sales: Food and Beverage Stores.” Next, create a custom formula to combine the series by typing in (a/(b-c-d))*100 and clicking “Apply.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.