Workers leave employment largely for two reasons: forced layoffs and voluntary quits.
In the past, the FRED Blog has used JOLTS business survey data from the BLS to analyze these flows. In May, FRED added another set of related household survey data compiled by Kathrin Ellieroth and Amanda Michaud (E-M), which provides a complementary perspective.
Our FRED graph above shows employee layoffs (blue lines) and quits (orange lines) from both these sources. It displays data since January 2016 for readability, but the datasets go back farther than that.
- JOLTS data are the dashed lines.
- E-M data are the solid lines.
Here’s an important distinction: The JOLTS data include employer-to-employer transitions, when workers move from one job to another without being unemployed in between. The E-M data include quits and layoffs that result in non-employment. One key difference is that the E-M data allow for observing where people will go following a layoff or quit: unemployment or non-participation. This can help researchers explain labor supply decisions of individuals and their contribution to unemployment.
How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Monthly Transition Rate of All U.S. Workers From Employment to Non-Employment Due to a Layoff” (from the E-M dataset). In the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select the other three series: “Monthly Transition Rate of All U.S. Workers From Employment to Non-Employment Due to a Quit” (also from the E-M dataset) and “Layoffs and Discharges: Total Nonfarm” and “Quits: Total Nonfarm” (from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics). Be sure to click “Add data series” each time. Finally, use the “Format” tab to change line colors and textures.
Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo, Kathrin Ellieroth, and Amanda Michaud.