Federal Reserve Economic Data

In past posts, we’ve looked at movement in household assets such as pensions and direct holdings of stocks and household liabilities such as home mortgages and consumer credit. Today, we look at how unexpected inflation can affect the value of these household assets and liabilities.

The FRED graph above shows data, adjusted for inflation, from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Blue bars show the net change in the dollar value of total assets, and red bars show the net change in the dollar value of total liabilities. (Btw, “consumer units” in the graph is just a less homey name for households.)

What the data show about inflation-adjusted changes in these assets and liabilities

1984-2000: In most years, assets and liabilities changed by similar amounts.

2001-2012: The value of liabilities consistently changed more than the value of assets.

2013-2020: The value of assets consistently changed more than the value of liabilities.

This alternating pattern strongly suggests that each side of a household’s balance sheet is impacted by different factors and may even respond differently to common shocks. Take, for example, the unexpected inflation recorded during 2021-2022.

What recent research shows about inflation’s effect on these assets and liabilities

Yu-Ting Chiang, Ezra Karger, and Mick Dueholm at the St. Louis Fed use survey data reported by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System to study the impact of unexpected inflation on the payment streams related to different types of household assets and liabilities. They find that the net balance of wealth gains and losses from unexpected inflation is related to how wealthy a household is: In short, unexpected inflation makes the poorest and the richest households worse off, while middle-income households become slightly better off.

For more about this and other research, visit the publications page of the St. Louis Fed’s website, which offers an array of economic analysis and expertise provided by our staff.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Net Change in Total Assets: All Consumer Units.” The data, from 1984 to 2023, should be adjusted for consumer price inflation to compare their change over time. So, from the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Edit Line” tab to search for “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average.” Click “Add.” Type the formula (a/b)*100 and click “Apply.” Use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “Net Change in Total Liabilities: All Consumer Units” and repeat the steps to customize and adjust the data by consumer price inflation.

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

California has long been the heart of the film industry, but the data show a shift has been under way.

The FRED graph above plots the fraction of workers in the motion picture and sound recording industry who are located in California. There’s a clear trend: While California remains a leader, its share of industry employment has declined. In the 1990s, this share hovered around 45%. The first large decline occurred around the 2001 recession, bringing the share to roughly 40%. An even larger decline occurred after the pandemic, starting in 2022. Now, the share has dropped below 30%.

These data square well with broad trends in the film industry: Even well before the pandemic, states such as Georgia invested heavily in attracting film and TV productions, potentially challenging California’s dominance. The more recent acceleration downward could also reflect the general shift of employment and population away from California.

How to create this graph: In FRED, search for and select “All Employees, Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Edit Line 1″ tab to “Customize data” by adding the California-only series with this code” “SMU06000005051200001SA.” Click “Add” and insert b/a in the “Formula” field and click “Apply.”

Suggested by Victoria Gregory.

Our previous post looked at the general category of office and stationery supplies, which includes printing paper. Inflation-adjusted sales are now just one-fifth of what they were in the early 2000s.

Today’s post looks more closely at paperboard, a sturdier form of paper used in, among other things, packaging and shipping goods. Has paperboard gone the way of paper? The FRED graph above tracks the manufacturing of paperboard containers, and the FRED graph below tracks a similar path for the manufacturing of the paperboard itself, which includes recycled materials.

Despite the rise in e-commerce and all its related packaging, there have been clear downturns for paperboard. But the story here isn’t a simple one. Paperboard is used for more than retail packaging, and retail packaging with paperboard may have declined for many reasons—for example, by substituting other types of packaging. We’re fortunate to have some industry insights to help illuminate the story.

From the American Forest and Paper Association:

“U.S. paper and paperboard capacity declined by 1.6% in 2023 [with] an average decline of 0.9% per year since 2014. [M]ore than 1.7 million tons of capacity, mostly using wood fiber, was permanently removed in 2023 as the industry faced demand weakness from customer destocking and economic headwinds.”

From Darren Miller, a senior director in the packaging industry:

“Sustainability requirements, lightweighting technology, and consumer preferences have yielded significant changes in the industry, including a shift from virgin to recycled capacity. Many companies also factor-in packaging size to try to minimize impact on landfills, shipping, and warehouse inventory. Despite its recyclability and decomposition properties, cardboard takes up more space than, say, a plastic bag or other flexible packaging that incorporates both foil and plastic.

Also consider inventory positions and the economy in general: Back in 2020-21, there were shortages of virtually everything. Manufacturing played catch-up, eventually exceeding demand. Customers overbought based on inflated demand signals, resulting in full warehouses and stores in an economy with consumers purchasing less due to inflationary pressure. This may partly explain the large dip in 2022. Put simply, if fewer products are being produced, purchased, and shipped, then less cardboard is needed and thus produced.”

How these graphs were created: Search FRED for “paperboard” and select the series for “paperboard container” and “paperboard mills.”

Suggested by George Fortier and Christian Zimmermann.