Federal Reserve Economic Data

The labor force participation rate (LFPR)—the percentage of civilians employed or actively seeking work—has declined since the turn of the century as shown in our first FRED graph above. Previously, total LFPR had risen after an increase in women entering the workforce and a corresponding but smaller drop in men’s LFPR. Since 1990, women’s LFPR has stabilized but men’s LFPR has continued to decline at an average rate of 2.7 percentage points per decade.

Our second FRED graph above splits male workers into three age groups—15 to 24 (high school and college age); 25 to 54 (prime working age); and 55 to 64 (near-retirement). The rate for older men (orange line) has been relatively constant, but the rate for prime-age men (green line) has steadily decreased. The decline for younger men (blue line) is even more pronounced, which may be explained by more young men opting for more education.

The drop in the LFPR for prime-age men was studied by Leila Bengali, Evgeniya Duzhak, and Cindy Zhao at the San Francisco Fed. They state that the gap in  participation between prime-age male Millennials today and male Baby Boomers (when they were of prime working age) can be explained by higher incidence of postsecondary education attainment, self-reported disabilities or illnesses, and caretaking responsibilities. They also summarize other economic research that attributes this decline to changing industry structure, falling demand for jobs that prime-age men have traditionally held, and the opioid crisis.

How these graphs were created: Search FRED for and select “Labor Force Participation Rate.” Below the graph, click on the release table link, select the series, and click “Add to Graph.” Use the “Format” tab to customize line style and color. Take a similar approach for the second graph after searching for “Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Labor Force Participation Rate Male: From 15 to 24 Years for United States.”

Note: Labor force participation rates by age group in FRED are sourced from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The labor force participation rate data in the first graph is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There may be slight differences in LFPR values between the two agencies.

Suggested by Brooke Hathhorn and Michael Owyang.

The value of the US dollar can influence trade flows by changing the relative prices of exports and imports. A stronger dollar tends to make imports cheaper for Americans and US goods more expensive abroad, which can put upward pressure on the trade deficit.

In practice, though, the relationship between the dollar and the US trade balance is far from consistent.

Our FRED graph above shows two measures:

• A trade balance ratio, defined as (exports − imports) ÷ (exports + imports), which expresses the US trade position relative to the total value of trade flows.
• An exchange rate measure, which in this case is the trade-weighted US dollar index, which reflects the nominal value of the US dollar against a broad basket of currencies for goods trade.

When we plot these two series together, we see that the relationship varies over time.

• In 2014-16, the dollar strengthened considerably and the trade balance ratio (exports minus imports, divided by total trade) weakened, consistent with the idea that a stronger dollar can reduce net exports by making US goods more expensive abroad and imports cheaper at home.
• In both the 2008-09 recession and 2022-23, the trade balance ratio improved alongside a stronger dollar, suggesting that other forces, such as collapsing import demand during a downturn or shifts in commodity prices, were the dominant drivers.

Trade policy can also affect both the dollar and the trade balance in ways that break the usual pattern.

• The 2018-19 tariff increases on a broad set of imports, especially from China, affected relative prices and sourcing decisions directly. They may have contributed to a stronger dollar through capital inflows, while at the same time reducing certain import volumes.
• In 2025, across-the-board tariffs and targeted increases on specific goods could again influence the trade balance through price and sourcing effects that do not operate primarily through exchange rate changes. They have the potential to shift both import volumes and export competitiveness, sometimes reinforcing and other times counteracting the influence of the dollar.

These episodes underscore that the link between the dollar and the trade balance is not systematic. Exchange rates are just one factor in shaping trade outcomes. Domestic demand, global growth, commodity price swings, and trade policy all play a role. And in recent years, tariffs and other trade measures have been especially relevant.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and add “Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad, Goods” (DTWEXBGS) to the graph on the left axis. From the “Edit Graph” tab, add “Exports of Goods and Services” (EXPGS) and “Imports of Goods and Services” (IMPGS) as Line 2. To do this, enter the formula (a-b)/(a+b) in the Line 2 tab. Finally, change the starting date to “2006-01-01.”

Suggested by Ana Maria Santacreu.

Does it always feel like your flight is full?

It makes sense that more people experience full flights because there are, by definition, fewer people on less-crowded flights. The other reason is that, yes, flights are indeed mostly full.

Our FRED graph above shows “load factors” for US airlines: that is, the percentage of seats sold.

The red line shows clear seasonal patterns: If you don’t like crowds, avoid flying in June and July and instead fly in January and February.

The blue line shows the same series, but removes the regular seasonal patterns. Here we can see how the load is trending within a year without having to compare with the same month in the previous years. And we see that the de-seasonalized load is fairly constant over time.

Our second FRED graph, below, shows seasonal data for domestic flights (blue line) and international flights (red line). There’s little difference between the two series, except for the period right after the pandemic. In particular, it doesn’t look like there’s much room for airlines to arbitrage between domestic and international flights during the year if the same planes could be used for both.

How these graphs were created: Search FRED for and select one of the load factor series. Click “Edit Graph” and use the “Add Line” tab to search again for the other series. Use the “Format” tab to change the settings of the second line. Proceed similarly for the second graph.

Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.