Federal Reserve Economic Data

The Russian Federation is the largest country on earth by area, but it is smaller than the European Union both economically and demographically. Since 2013, the EU has included 27 member countries. In 1989, typically seen as the end of the Cold War, it included 11 member countries. But neither the discussion below nor the data above depend critically on the date you choose to start comparing Russia and the EU.

GDP

The blue line shows the ratio (expressed in percentages) of Russia’s GDP to the EU’s GDP. From 1989 through 2020, Russian GDP never exceeded 15% of the EU’s. The peak occurred in 2012. Since 2013, Russian GDP has grown more slowly than the EU’s—hence, its decreasing relative size.

To gauge the importance of this difference, consider the following thought experiment: Suppose the EU spends 4% of its GDP on defense (4% of GDP is approximately how much the U.S. spends on defense). Because Russian GDP was approximately 10% of EU GDP in 2020, Russia would have to spend 40% of its GDP on defense to simply match EU spending. Obviously, 4% is just an example, but it illustrates the principle that Russia must spend 10 times more of its GDP to match the EU.

Population

The red line shows that Russia’s population has decreased from about 35.2% to 32.2% of the EU’s population from 1989 to 2020.

Comment

Combined together, the GDP ratio and the population ratio imply that the Russian Federation’s GDP per capita is also smaller than the European Union’s: about two-third smaller in 2020. This post doesn’t attempt to answer the difficult question of whether the outcome of a conflict is determined by total GDP or GDP per capita. Certainly, both variables are likely to play a role, among others. But in its current confrontation with the European Union, the Russian Federation is likely to be at a disadvantage on these two fronts.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for “GDP Russia.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, search for “GDP European Union” and apply formula a/b*100. Open the tab “new line” and repeat with population.

Suggested by Guillaume Vandenbroucke.

The FRED Blog has discussed how the COVID-19 pandemic changed the sale volumes of different products, from groceries and alcohol to men’s clothing, sporting goods, pharmacies and drug stores. The social distancing required to manage the pandemic also impacted how people shopped, boosting online sales. Today, we compare nonstore and e-commerce retail sales to total sales to see if the boost to online sales was permanent or temporary.

The FRED graph above shows data from the U.S. Census about where consumers do their shopping. The blue line compares monthly nonstore retail sales (i.e., home delivery, TV or print catalog sales, and electronic shopping) with all other non-food, non-motor-vehicle retail sales. The red line compares quarterly retail sales over the internet with total retail sales. All data series are seasonally adjusted and presented as percent rates, or proportions.

The parallel rising trends of these data indicate that shopping over the internet and away from stores is gradually growing in popularity. The spike in distance shopping during the early months of the pandemic is very noticeable. However, the gradual decline afterward strongly suggests nonstore and e-commerce retail sales are back to trend and that the pandemic-related boost was temporary.

Although FRED doesn’t currently have any data to compare brick-and-mortar window shopping to internet browser window shopping, perusing “the shelves” in IDEAS yields multiple research papers on the topic. We invite you to try these on for size.

How this graph was created: Search for and select “Advance Retail Sales: Nonstore Retailers.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for “Advance Retail Sales: Nonstore Retailers.” Remember to click “Add data series.” Next, use the “Edit Lines” tab to customize the data in line 2 by searching for and selecting: “Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services, Excluding Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers,” “Advance Retail Sales: Food Services and Drinking Places,” and “Advance Retail Sales: Food and Beverage Stores.” Next, create a custom formula to combine the series by typing in (a/(b-c-d))*100 and clicking “Apply.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

The economic effects of COVID-19 and the subsequent recovery have been markedly different across countries. So it’s a good thing FRED has international data. Here, we compare the recent dynamics of output, demand, and inflation for three developed economies: Canada, Germany, and the United States.

Output: GDP

Economic activity contracted sharply in all three countries with the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020. The contraction was mildest in the U.S. and most severe in Canada. But the economic differences across these countries become wider throughout the recovery. The U.S. recovered the fastest, with real GDP in 2021:Q4 about 5% higher than in 2020:Q1. The recoveries in Canada and Germany have been slower: Real GDP in 2021:Q4 increased about 2.5% and 0%, respectively, relative to 2020:Q1.

Demand: Imports

These differences in output are paralleled by the differences in demand. We use real imports of goods and services in the FRED graph above as a proxy for aggregate demand. The U.S. experienced the mildest contraction and the sharpest recovery: Import levels in the U.S. had surpassed their pre-pandemic levels by 2020:Q4 and currently stand close to 15% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Imports in Canada and Germany were still below their pre-pandemic levels in 2021:Q2 and 2021:Q3, respectively.

Inflation: CPI

Not surprisingly, these differences in output and demand are paralleled by the differences in inflation. During the recession itself, consumer price index (CPI) levels in all three countries remained fairly stagnant relative to 2020:Q1. They rose gradually and in tandem until about May 2021. U.S. CPI has accelerated its relative rate of increase since June 2021, potentially as a result of its relatively larger increase in demand.

The differences in these dynamics point to the different effects COVID-19 has had on these economies. Look for a deeper comparative cross-country analysis in future posts, where we hope to disentangle the relative importance of the various forces at play.

How these graphs were created: First graph: Search and select “Real Gross Domestic Product for Germany.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, use the “Add Line” tab to search for and select “Real Gross Domestic Product” and “Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure in Constant Prices: Total Gross Domestic Product for Canada.” Use the “Edit Lines” tab to change units to “Index (Scale value to 100 for chosen date).” Enter the base year date as “2020-01-01.” Click the “Copy to all” button to apply to all series.
Second graph: Use the same steps above to graph “Real Imports of Goods and Services for Germany,” “Real Imports of Goods and Services,” and “Real Imports of Goods and Services for Canada.”
Third graph: Use the same steps above to graph “Consumer Price Index of All Items in Germany,” “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average,” and “Consumer Price Index: Total, All Items for Canada.”

Suggested by Jason Dunn and Fernando Leibovici.