Federal Reserve Economic Data

Recent speeches by Federal Reserve Bank officials and members of the Board of Governors suggest that productivity is on the minds of policymakers. One common theme is that artificial intelligence could increase productivity.

First, let’s define productivity.

Economists use two alternative definitions of productivity—labor productivity and total factor productivity (TFP)—that are somewhat correlated but not necessarily equivalent.

Our FRED graph above shows both of these measures, annually, for the period 1988-2024. Labor productivity is calculated as real GDP divided by hours worked. This can vary with changes in technology and in the amount of capital per worker. TFP, on the other hand, is computed by effectively holding capital per worker fixed and more directly represents the effect of technology on productivity. One thing to note, though, is that changes in labor productivity encompass changes in TFP.

How could AI impact productivity?

Artificial intelligence is a technology that can improve efficiency and increase productivity capacity. So, it has the potential to increase both labor productivity and TFP.

Some economists believe that a portion of this productivity boost might have already been realized but that most of the gains are likely yet to come, as AI adoption widens. AI’s effect on these two measures of productivity could also vary. For example, construction of data centers—now and in the future—increase capital. This could lead to an increase in labor productivity, but it has an uncertain effect on TFP, depending on whether output rises more than the capital stock. Read more on this topic in the St. Louis Fed On the Economy Blog.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Private Nonfarm Business Sector: Total Factor Productivity.” Click on the “Edit Graph” button and select the “Add Line” tab to search for and add “Private Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Productivity.”

Suggested by Brooke Hathhorn and Michael T. Owyang.

“The central element of the Penn World Table has always been real GDP per capita, a measure of relative living standards across countries at different points in time.”

—Penn World Table authors Feenstar, Inklaar, and Timmer

FRED recently added data from the 11.0 version of the Penn World Table (PWT), produced by the University of Groningen and the University of California–Davis. This academic data collection provides information about real GDP per capita, as noted above, but also other historical economic conditions around the world. It complements other sources of international data in FRED, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

How so?

The PWT offers national income accounts–type data converted to international prices and adjusted for differences in purchasing power. Also, the many available PWTs are not data releases like those put out by the IMF, World Bank, or the OECD. The authors call their product “versions” and number them because the methodologies change from issue to issue. It may be more helpful to think of them as “vintages.” Even when there is a correspondence between concepts across versions, there are changes to the methodologies that impact the historical values of the series.

Here’s an example:

Our FRED graph above shows the reported exchange rate between the Sudanese currency and the US dollar between 1950 and 2023: The solid blue line plots data from PWT 7.1 (available for 1950-2010), and the dashed green line plots data from PWT 11.0 (available for 1970-2023). Note that the labels for the data series are different. But, during the period when the two overlap (1970-2010), the majority of values are exactly the same. For a handful of years (1989-1992 and 2010), there are substantial differences in the values, as shown in our FRED graph below.

The PWT authors invite caution when using data from different versions. FRED makes it easy for data users to keep track of PWT versions, and data vintages in general, by suggesting a detailed data citation that includes the date when the data were accessed.

How this graph was created: Search FRED for and select “Exchange Rate to U.S. Dollar for Sudan.” Click the “Edit Graph” button and select the “Add Line” tab to search for “Exchange Rate (market+estimated) for Sudan.” Don’t forget to click “Add data series.”

Suggested by Diego Mendez-Carbajo.

In this blog post, we track Venezuela’s economy over the past several years, including output per worker.

Output per worker measures how much economic output the average employed person produces in a given period. This measure is intimately related to labor productivity and is a core driver of living standards, as it tends to lead to higher wages.

 

Data on Venezuela’s output per worker

Real GDP: We have limited up-to-date data on the Venezuelan economy, so we must proceed cautiously with some projected numbers where data are unavailable. FRED has data on real output (GDP) for Venezuela until 2023. So we add real GDP growth estimates from the International Monetary Fund to our discussion. The IMF estimates that Venezuela’s real GDP grew by 5.3% between 2024 and 2025.

At the onset of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, Venezuela’s real GDP was $17 billion. As of 2025, Venezuela’s GDP was $5.6 billion.

Employment: The number of employed workers is obtained by multiplying the country’s population by its employment-to-population ratio, both available in FRED until 2024. We use the 3-year average growth rate of these variables to predict values for 2025. Venezuela had about 17 million people employed in 2008. That number fell to 14 million people in 2025 after a decline in both population and employment ratios, as a result of difficulties accessing food, housing, healthcare, and security.

 

Venezuela’s recent turmoil

As we see in our FRED graph above, Venezuela’s real output per worker has plummeted since 2013. The average Venezuelan worker used to generate $1,014 of goods and services in 2008. In 2025 that worker generated only $391 of goods and services. Despite the mass exodus of Venezuelans who left the country starting in 2016, real output also sharply contracted, as discussed in an older post.

 

 

Other oil-producing countries

Our second FRED graph (above) shows the same output-per-worker statistic for the US and 5 other major oil producers: Iran, Iraq, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Unlike Venezuela’s output per worker, the other major oil-producing countries experienced a fairly stable trend in output over the past two decades. For instance, the average worker in the United Arab Emirates generated $54,181 in goods and services in 2024 (vs. $399 in Venezuela). The output per worker in Iran, Iraq, and Russia was around $12,000 to $18,000; in Saudi Arabia $39,683; and in the US $114,303.

To produce the same level of output from one US worker in 2024, Venezuela would need 286 workers, when it used to need 87 in 2008.

 

The takeaway

Viewing Venezuela through the lens of output per worker highlights the scale of the country’s challenges. Venezuelan workers today produce far less than a decade ago and significantly less than workers in other oil-producing countries. Without a sustained recovery in productivity, improvements in living standards are likely to remain limited.

 

How these graphs were created:
First graph: Search FRED for and select the annual series of “Real GDP at Constant National Prices for Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.” From the “Edit Graph” panel, add “Population, Total for Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela” and “Employment to Population Ratio for the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.” Apply the formula 1000000*a/(b*c/100) to get real output per worker in 2021 US dollars. To add the trend lines, go to the “Edit Graph” panel and open the “Add Line” tab; click on “user-defined line” and enter values defining start and end for each new line.
Second graph: For calculating real GDP per worker in the US, search FRED for and select the annual series of “Real Gross Domestic Product per Capita” (measured in 2017 US dollars). From the “Edit Graph” panel, add “Employment-Population Ratio.” Apply the formula a/(b/100). To change placement of the y-axis, open the “Format” tab; select the “Customize” section for Line 1 and select “Left” for the y-axis position. For calculating real GDP per worker in Iran, open the “Add Line” tab and select the annual series of “Constant GDP per Capita for the Islamic Republic of Iran” (measured in 2010 US dollars). From the “Edit Lines” panel, add “Employment to Population Ratio for the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Apply the formula a/(b/100). Then open the “Format” tab; select the “customize” section for Line 1 and select “Right” for the y-axis position. Repeat these steps for the remaining countries.

Suggested by Hoang Le and Ricardo Marto.